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Game Recap
WSH4
PHI3
WSH beat PHI 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.78 expected goals to 3.28. M. Michkov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Michkov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Lindgren stopped 19 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 17:31PHIM. Michkov0.13 xG
- 1st 19:07WSHA. Ovechkin0.19 xG
- 2nd 4:17WSHC. McMichael0.05 xG
- 2nd 7:23PHIT. FoersterPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 11:19PHIM. Michkov0.07 xG
- 3rd 6:23WSHL. Eller0.08 xG
- 3rd 12:05WSHJ. Chychrun0.11 xG
Team Stats
WSHPHI
18Shots on goal22
1.78Expected goals3.28
38Shot attempts54
165v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play1/2
9Hits25
13Blocked shots10
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways16
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 1.78 xGPHI 3.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 3:59 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 2:15 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:34 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:29 |
| L. Eller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:01 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 1:45 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:21 | 2:03 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:00 | 1:52 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:41 | 1:36 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:45 | 2:24 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:29 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 2:41 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 1:24 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:40 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:01 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:43 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:52 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:12 |
| A. Richard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:56 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Gaucher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:15 | 0:53 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:38 | 2:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:32 | 1:36 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:02 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 58:02 | Loss |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.9, PHI 2.5 | WSH 4, PHI 3 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 24.7, PHI 27.8 | WSH 18, PHI 22 |
| Win chance | WSH 56% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.6 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.8 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.7 | 6 | 0.49 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.4 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI A. Richard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.6 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.