Game Recap: WSH 1, PHI 4, March 11, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH1

FinalWed, Mar 11, 2026Every game that night

PHI4

PHI beat WSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.87 expected goals to 2.96. O. Tippett led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Tippett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. S. Ersson stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	0	0	1
PHI	0	2	2	4

1st 9:51WSHR. LeonardPP0.10 xG
2nd 4:23PHIT. Konecny0.10 xG
2nd 12:13PHIT. Zegras0.21 xG
3rd 7:17PHIJ. Drysdale0.06 xG
3rd 18:57PHIO. TippettEN0.56 xG

Team Stats

WSHPHI

23Shots on goal22

2.96Expected goals3.87

69Shot attempts41

175v5 shots on goal16

1/3Power play0/2

20Hits16

11Blocked shots16

10Penalty minutes14

10Giveaways11

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.96 xGPHI 3.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH22 on goal, 1 scored

PHI22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	18:10	3:15
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	5	2	0	-1	0	15:45	4:08
R. Leonard	RW	1	0	1	2	4	0	-2	0	14:35	2:15
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	6	1	-2	2	21:39	2:26
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	18:38	3:22
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:03	1:34
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:32	0:01
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:31	0:39
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:27	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:46	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	4	8:10	0:04
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:55	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-4	2	24:44	3:24
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:54	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:19	1:23
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:09	0:17
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:25	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	14:48	0:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	21	18	3	.857	58:30	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Tippett	RW	1	1	2	6	2	0	+2	0	16:40	2:18
N. Cates	LW	0	2	2	0	1	2	+2	0	11:28	1:12
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:44	1:16
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	19:01	2:20
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+3	2	16:22	2:16
A. Bump	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:14	1:19
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	4	0	+2	0	12:00	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	15:24	0:25
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	6	14:44	0:25
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:46	2:19
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:10	0:22
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:36	1:18
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	24:01	0:30
C. York	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	23:10	1:27
J. Drysdale	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	21:59	2:15
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	+2	2	21:51	0:18
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:47	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	11:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1A. Beauvillier13:01J. Sourdif15:43A. Ovechkin10:07

Line 2D. Strome13:12A. Protas14:13T. Wilson15:30

Line 3P. Dubois11:42C. McMichael12:40R. Leonard10:16

Line 4E. Frank8:46B. Duhaime7:38H. Lapierre6:55

Pair 1T. Riemsdyk15:06J. Chychrun17:50

Pair 2T. Liljegren14:25M. Fehérváry14:33

Pair 3M. Roy15:24R. Sandin15:34

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak13:44T. Konecny15:05A. Bump10:35

Line 2S. Couturier12:36N. Grebenkin13:19L. Glendening9:28

Line 3T. Zegras13:20O. Tippett11:00C. Grundstrom12:00

Line 4D. Barkey10:18M. Michkov10:27N. Cates7:15

Pair 1C. York17:25J. Drysdale17:22

Pair 2R. Ristolainen17:40T. Sanheim18:05

Pair 3N. Seeler12:36N. Juulsen10:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayTravis Konecny PHI Turns 29 that day1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.3, PHI 2.8	WSH 1, PHI 4
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	WSH 25.6, PHI 26.0	WSH 23, PHI 22
Win chance	WSH 57%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	6	0.63	2	27%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.8	1	0.70	0	23%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.7	5	0.89	1	36%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	1	0.94	1	30%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	0	0.65	0	24%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	3	0.76	1	25%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	2.0	3	0.61	1	20%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	2	0.83	0	31%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	0	0.73	0	24%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	0	0.40	0	17%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	2	0.54	1	18%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.7	0	0.83	0	25%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	0	0.45	0	13%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	2	0.57	0	21%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	1	0.27	0	5%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	0	0.66	1	22%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	0	0.49	2	17%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.5	0	0.24	1	14%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	4	0.50	0	19%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.4	3	0.42	1	10%	1
WSH E. Frank	1.4	1	0.43	0	18%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.38	1	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.41	1	10%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.2	0	0.38	0	6%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	2	0.29	0	5%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	0	0.35	0	12%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	0	0.16	0	3%	0
WSH T. Liljegren	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	1	0.32	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	0	0.25	0	8%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	1	0.27	0	9%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.6	1	0.19	0	3%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.10	0	6%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.