Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WSH8
PIT3
WSH beat PIT 8-3, with the chances close: 3.41 expected goals to 3.75. P. Dubois led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Chychrun had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. L. Thompson stopped 29 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 5:13WSHE. Frank0.07 xG
- 1st 18:21PITK. LetangPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 1:10WSHM. Fehérváry0.16 xG
- 2nd 6:36PITS. Crosby0.02 xG
- 2nd 10:38WSHJ. Chychrun0.14 xG
- 2nd 14:17WSHJ. Chychrun0.04 xG
- 2nd 14:25WSHA. Protas0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:05WSHT. Wilson0.09 xG
- 3rd 13:11WSHD. StromePP0.09 xG
- 3rd 14:22PITD. Heinen0.43 xG
- 3rd 17:19WSHB. Duhaime0.23 xG
Team Stats
WSHPIT
30Shots on goal32
3.41Expected goals3.75
65Shot attempts77
225v5 shots on goal28
1/4Power play1/2
21Hits15
23Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes10
12Giveaways9
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.41 xGPIT 3.75 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 14:58 | 3:10 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:55 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:15 |
| E. Frank | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:55 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:12 | 2:18 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:28 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 12:17 | 2:41 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 5:28 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:01 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:29 | 1:48 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:51 | 2:12 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:05 | 3:09 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 59:56 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:24 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:14 | 2:45 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:46 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 2:47 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:26 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:45 | 0:32 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:50 | 2:51 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:06 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:20 | 2:44 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 21:44 | 0:31 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:06 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 0:27 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 13 | 8 | 5 | .615 | 34:25 | Loss |
| J. Blomqvist | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 25:35 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.9, PIT 2.7 | WSH 8, PIT 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 26.4, PIT 28.5 | WSH 30, PIT 32 |
| Win chance | WSH 53% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.2 | 4 | 0.91 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.9 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.6 | 6 | 0.58 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.2 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 2.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.1 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 1 | 0.70 | 3 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.8 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.