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Game Recap
WSH2
PIT5
PIT beat WSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 1.91. PIT outshot WSH 38 to 20. B. Rust led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Nedeljkovic stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| PIT | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 4:08WSHC. McMichael0.25 xG
- 1st 4:54PITB. Rust0.27 xG
- 2nd 7:19PITB. RustPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:56PITS. Crosby0.14 xG
- 2nd 16:56WSHA. OvechkinPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 8:46PITD. HeinenSH0.23 xG
- 3rd 9:01PITP. Tomasino0.23 xG
Team Stats
WSHPIT
20Shots on goal38
1.91Expected goals3.56
43Shot attempts74
185v5 shots on goal33
1/2Power play1/2
16Hits24
20Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways14
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 1.91 xGPIT 3.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 3:05 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:26 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 2:12 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:07 | 2:10 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 2:39 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:53 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 13:53 | 0:55 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:22 | 2:39 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:46 | 0:26 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stevenson | 38 | 33 | 5 | .868 | 60:00 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:07 | 1:56 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:51 | 1:54 |
| B. Rust | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 1:56 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:24 | 1:04 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:50 | 2:04 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:06 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:56 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Ponomarev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Poulin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 1:03 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:25 | 1:52 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:06 | 1:08 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:01 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.4, PIT 3.0 | WSH 2, PIT 5 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 28.1, PIT 27.3 | WSH 20, PIT 38 |
| Win chance | WSH 56% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.8 | 3 | 1.14 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 4 | 0.84 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 0 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT V. Ponomarev | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT S. Poulin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.5 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.