Game Recap: WSH 2, TBL 3, November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH2

FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

TBL3

TBL beat WSH 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.89 expected goals to 2.53. WSH outshot TBL 30 to 20. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Protas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	1	0	2
TBL	2	0	1	3

1st 4:06WSHB. Duhaime0.05 xG
1st 6:07TBLE. Lilleberg0.25 xG
1st 15:09TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.11 xG
2nd 17:08WSHJ. Carlson0.01 xG
3rd 8:42TBLB. Hagel0.18 xG

Team Stats

WSHTBL

30Shots on goal20

2.53Expected goals1.89

61Shot attempts43

245v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play1/2

19Hits20

12Blocked shots10

23Penalty minutes11

12Giveaways10

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.53 xGTBL 1.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH31 on goal, 2 scored

TBL20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	14:20	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	12:19	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:06	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:44	1:07
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	5	2	1	+1	2	19:18	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	12	18:11	1:01
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	17:49	1:59
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:21	0:52
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:08	0:53
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	13:11	0:59
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:30	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	7:31	0:00
J. Carlson	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	2	18:59	1:08
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	5	24:58	1:07
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	23:08	0:01
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:56	0:53
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:27	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	15:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	20	17	3	.850	57:54	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	22:31	2:34
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	20:18	0:23
D. James	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	12:51	0:10
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	22:34	2:46
B. Point	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:06	1:45
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	16:07	1:54
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:27	0:31
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:15	0:05
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	12:26	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:44	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	19:37	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	2	20:24	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	17:51	1:12
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:00	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	18:58	0:16
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:42	2:24
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	30	29	2	.967	59:34	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1D. Strome15:24A. Beauvillier14:23A. Ovechkin13:40

Line 2T. Wilson14:49C. McMichael13:56A. Protas15:43

Line 3N. Dowd13:46E. Frank11:53B. Duhaime10:54

Line 4H. Lapierre8:06J. Sourdif7:12R. Leonard10:37

Pair 1J. Chychrun20:11M. Roy19:37

Pair 2R. Sandin14:50T. Riemsdyk14:54

Pair 3J. Carlson14:47M. Fehérváry15:53

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov17:57J. Guentzel17:26B. Point15:21

Line 2Y. Gourde13:30Z. Girgensons11:47P. Holmberg10:06

Line 3D. James12:20B. Hagel15:25O. Bjorkstrand13:44

Line 4J. Finley9:44G. Goncalves12:26

Pair 1V. Hedman15:14J. Moser17:51

Pair 2D. Raddysh12:52E. Lilleberg18:20

Pair 3E. Cernak15:54C. D'Astous15:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJohn Carlson TBL Faces WSH, his team until Feb 20261 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.9, TBL 3.2	WSH 2, TBL 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	WSH 26.2, TBL 26.7	WSH 30, TBL 20
Win chance	TBL 55%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	3	0.86	0	36%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	2	1.39	0	34%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	1	0.96	2	36%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	5	0.55	0	19%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	4	0.94	2	31%	1
TBL B. Point	2.3	2	0.93	0	37%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	1	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	3	0.55	1	12%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	2	0.67	0	27%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.9	0	0.69	1	13%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	2	0.81	0	24%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	5	0.60	0	20%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	2	0.45	0	19%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	1	0.54	0	20%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.6	0	0.32	0	13%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	1	0.45	0	15%	0
TBL D. James	1.5	0	0.40	1	15%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	3	0.25	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.20	0	12%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.34	0	5%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.0	1	0.28	0	5%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.27	1	14%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
WSH E. Frank	0.9	0	0.24	1	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	1	0.29	0	6%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	3	0.23	0	6%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.38	0	13%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	1	0.26	2	6%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	0	0.30	0	9%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	0.9	1	0.16	0	11%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.19	1	9%	1
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	1	0.15	1	2%	1

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.