Game Recap: WSH 1, TBL 3, October 3, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH1

FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night

TBL3

TBL beat WSH 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.07 expected goals to 2.51. TBL outshot WSH 30 to 21. J. Guentzel led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Cernak had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	1	0	1
TBL	2	0	1	3

1st 2:26TBLC. D'Astous0.11 xG
1st 16:30TBLC. Geekie0.05 xG
2nd 7:04WSHJ. Sourdif0.02 xG
3rd 17:55TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.69 xG

Team Stats

WSHTBL

21Shots on goal30

2.51Expected goals4.07

61Shot attempts63

135v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/3

24Hits30

14Blocked shots19

25Penalty minutes13

11Giveaways19

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.51 xGTBL 4.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH21 on goal, 1 scored

TBL30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	14:57	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	12:24	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:34	2:21
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	18:02	2:14
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:53	1:46
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	12	17:49	2:13
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	15:21	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:45	1:45
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	14:10	1:17
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:34	2:41
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	11:37	0:00
I. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:55	1:39
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	2	27:11	2:10
C. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:03	1:50
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	2	18:11	0:02
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	17:11	0:02
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	5	15:25	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	29	27	2	.931	57:36	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	2	3	2	1	1	+3	0	18:18	4:56
B. Hagel	LW	0	2	2	6	0	0	+2	0	22:07	4:57
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	22:46	5:14
C. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	9:10	1:04
B. Point	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	2	20:32	4:30
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:42	1:25
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:47	0:33
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:25	1:03
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	2	14:27	0:06
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	13:57	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	8	1	-1	0	7:34	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:35	4:30
C. D'Astous	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	13:47	1:30
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	4	3	3	+1	0	20:34	0:03
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	19:23	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	15:52	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	13:34	0:09
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	10:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	.952	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson11:45P. Dubois13:41A. Tuch11:52

Line 2B. Jenner12:00A. Beauvillier10:21J. Sourdif9:39

Line 3D. Strome11:29R. Leonard11:44A. Ovechkin9:07

Line 4A. Protas11:08J. Kyrou10:05I. Protas7:38

Pair 1M. Roy12:08J. Chychrun20:48

Pair 2V. Desharnais12:05C. Hutson15:46

Pair 3T. Liljegren12:57M. Fehérváry13:47

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov13:06B. Point13:10G. Goncalves15:10

Line 2P. Holmberg14:20I. Mikheyev12:25Z. Girgensons12:39

Line 3A. Cirelli11:21B. Hagel10:23J. Guentzel12:28

Line 4J. Viel7:34C. Geekie8:06

Pair 1J. Carlson13:46J. Moser14:55

Pair 2R. McDonagh13:00E. Cernak16:16

Pair 3C. D'Astous10:11E. Lilleberg8:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 21 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.5	+106	-105	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	2.5	+150	-176	2	Under
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-160	+130	6	Over
TBL B. Point	2.5	+120	-140	3	Over
TBL J. Carlson	2.5	+100	-115	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	-125	+105	2	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-140	+116	3	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	-110	-105	1	Under
WSH A. Protas	1.5	+105	-115	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	+125	-170	3	Over
WSH C. Hutson	1.5	-110	-115	1	Under
WSH D. Strome	1.5	-105	-120	1	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	+120	-155	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	-125	-110	2	Over
WSH I. Protas	1.5	+125	-165	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	1.5	-195	+170	2	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	1.5	-125	+105	1	Under
WSH P. Dubois	1.5	+100	-125	1	Under
WSH R. Leonard	1.5	-140	+115	3	Over
WSH T. Wilson	1.5	-130	+125	2	Over
TBL V. Hedman	1.5	-135	+100	1	Under

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WSH A. Beauvillier	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+295	-370	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+175	-200	0	Under
WSH B. Jenner	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+205	-275	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+750	–	1	Over
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+600	-1000	1	Over
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+370	-500	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+490	-600	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+420	-750	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
WSH J. Sourdif	0.5	+800	-2500	1	Over
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
WSH M. Roy	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+450	-550	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
WSH T. Liljegren	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under
WSH V. Desharnais	0.5	+2800	-3500	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under

5 of 27 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+360	-425	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+148	-185	2	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+142	-160	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+200	-215	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+155	-200	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+125	-165	2	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+320	-425	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
WSH M. Roy	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-175	+135	1	Over
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under

5 of 27 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+124	-150	1	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-165	+140	2	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+190	-260	1	Over
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+170	-225	0	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+112	-120	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+185	-255	0	Under
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-170	+135	1	Over
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+105	-130	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-170	+135	3	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+160	-195	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
WSH M. Roy	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+116	-130	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+176	-240	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+102	-130	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+170	-185	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under

0 of 17 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+250	-425	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+145	-215	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+180	-275	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+200	-300	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+210	-350	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+125	-180	Under
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+110	-160	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+250	-425	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+380	-900	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+250	-425	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WSH C. Lindgren	26.5	-105	-130	27	Over
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	22.5	-108	+100	20	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJohn Carlson TBL Faces WSH, his team until Feb 20261 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.7, TBL 3.6	WSH 1, TBL 3
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	WSH 23.8, TBL 29.6	WSH 21, TBL 30
Win chance	TBL 64%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.4	6	1.13	2	37%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.4	3	1.56	1	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	2	1.08	3	37%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.5	0	0.62	0	28%	0
WSH A. Tuch	2.4	2	0.66	0	27%	0
TBL B. Point	2.2	3	0.85	0	34%	0
TBL J. Carlson	2.1	0	0.67	1	14%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.0	2	0.49	1	17%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	1	0.69	0	24%	0
WSH J. Kyrou	1.9	1	0.50	0	21%	0
WSH B. Jenner	1.8	3	0.43	1	19%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	3	0.43	0	17%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.7	0	0.54	0	19%	0
WSH T. Wilson	1.7	2	0.58	0	24%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.7	2	0.31	0	14%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.6	2	0.45	0	20%	0
WSH C. Hutson	1.4	1	0.44	0	9%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.4	1	0.59	0	19%	0
WSH I. Protas	1.4	0	0.49	0	14%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.4	1	0.50	0	10%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.3	1	0.23	0	9%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	0	0.45	0	14%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.2	1	0.37	1	15%	1
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	0	0.33	0	8%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.2	1	0.46	0	15%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	3	0.36	1	7%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	4	0.21	0	5%	0
WSH T. Liljegren	0.9	1	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.8	2	0.21	1	10%	1
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	0	0.34	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.8	0	0.25	0	6%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
WSH V. Desharnais	0.7	1	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.