WSH beat TOR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.09 expected goals to 1.78. N. Dowd led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. McMichael had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. C. Lindgren stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 1:06WSHN. Dowd0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:31TORJ. Tavares0.13 xG
- 3rd 9:51WSHC. McMichael0.30 xG
- 3rd 19:03WSHA. ProtasEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.09 xGTOR 1.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:10 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:52 | 4:12 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 4:10 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 2:11 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 4:15 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:59 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:09 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:30 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:56 | 1:45 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:24 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:17 | 4:09 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21:57 | 3:39 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:17 | 2:08 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:04 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:30 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 2:12 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:21 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:34 | 1:26 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:27 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:15 | 0:14 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:44 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:35 | 0:45 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:11 | 1:06 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 19:40 | 0:36 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:21 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:03 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 59:26 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.9, TOR 3.3 | WSH 3, TOR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 26.8, TOR 30.6 | WSH 26, TOR 21 |
| Win chance | TOR 57% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.1 | 2 | 1.22 | 0 | 46% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.5 | 2 | 1.13 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.3 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.3 | 5 | 0.57 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.3 | 2 | 1.30 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.6 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR F. Minten | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR N. Grebenkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.