Game Recap: WSH 3, VAN 4, January 21, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH3

FinalWed, Jan 21, 2026Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat WSH 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.29 expected goals to 3.81. D. Strome led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Lankinen stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	2	0	1	3
VAN	2	2	0	4

1st 8:25WSHD. StromePP0.19 xG
1st 9:43WSHJ. SourdifPP0.24 xG
1st 13:32VANB. Boeser0.15 xG
1st 18:22VANE. Kane0.04 xG
2nd 8:58VAND. O'Connor0.05 xG
2nd 11:43VANF. Hronek0.10 xG
3rd 16:37WSHD. Strome0.58 xG

Team Stats

WSHVAN

32Shots on goal25

3.81Expected goals2.29

63Shot attempts53

205v5 shots on goal18

2/3Power play0/3

18Hits17

14Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways18

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.81 xGVAN 2.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH29 on goal, 3 scored

VAN25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+1	0	21:17	2:42
J. Sourdif	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	-1	0	18:02	2:10
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	23:13	4:24
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	20:20	2:17
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:19	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	14:08	0:05
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	12:40	2:13
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:03	1:46
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	11:28	1:56
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	10:49	0:04
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:36	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6:43	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	2	26:45	1:48
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	25:53	3:07
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	2	19:58	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	19:51	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	12:56	0:08
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	11:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	25	21	4	.840	56:57	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	0	18:20	4:17
B. Boeser	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	16:20	4:00
D. Kampf	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	15:04	0:00
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	2	14:54	0:46
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+2	0	12:51	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	0	4	+2	0	19:20	4:17
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	18:24	0:04
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:49	0:28
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:18	0:25
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	11:49	4:14
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	9:56	0:01
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6:56	0:00
F. Hronek	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	23:10	0:32
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+3	0	17:23	4:11
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	23:54	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	22:21	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:44	0:35
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	32	29	3	.906	60:00	Win
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson12:47J. Sourdif12:16A. Protas12:26

Line 2D. Strome13:55R. Leonard10:27A. Ovechkin14:49

Line 3A. Beauvillier10:20B. Duhaime8:31N. Dowd10:53

Line 4E. Frank9:29H. Lapierre6:23C. McMichael8:36

Pair 1J. Carlson19:10J. Chychrun17:49

Pair 2R. Sandin17:40M. Roy15:43

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk9:23M. Fehérváry7:38

VAN

Line 1T. Blueger14:18C. Garland12:33L. Ohgren11:59

Line 2J. DeBrusk11:31E. Pettersson12:33E. Kane13:39

Line 3D. Kampf9:48D. O'Connor10:53B. Boeser9:10

Line 4N. Hoglander9:50M. Sasson6:56L. Karlsson7:33

Pair 1F. Hronek18:09Z. Buium14:09

Pair 2T. Myers14:02E. Pettersson12:54

Pair 3M. Pettersson16:23T. Willander11:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayRyan Leonard WSH Turns 21 that day2 SOG
HometownJustin Sourdif WSH Plays near home (born in Richmond)1 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.5, VAN 3.2	WSH 3, VAN 4
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	WSH 28.5, VAN 28.5	WSH 32, VAN 25
Win chance	WSH 55%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	2	0.97	1	37%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	2	0.68	0	24%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	0	0.54	2	25%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.4	2	0.51	1	24%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.2	4	0.45	0	18%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	4	0.66	2	28%	1
WSH A. Protas	2.1	3	0.77	0	24%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	0	0.67	0	23%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.0	2	0.67	0	19%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.0	3	0.95	3	27%	2
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	1	0.78	1	28%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	4	0.69	2	14%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	1	0.80	0	28%	0
VAN C. Garland	1.9	2	0.54	0	20%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.9	0	0.59	0	23%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	1	0.50	0	18%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	2	0.24	0	12%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	4	0.35	1	16%	1
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	3	0.51	2	19%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	1	0.50	1	7%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	3	0.34	0	10%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	2	0.33	0	6%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	0	0.29	0	17%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.2	2	0.32	0	14%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.1	1	0.26	2	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	3	0.36	0	6%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	1	0.34	1	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.32	0	8%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.37	0	15%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.31	0	4%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	1	0.36	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	1	0.16	0	8%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	0	0.17	0	4%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	1	0.19	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.