Game Recap: WSH 5, VGK 2, November 17, 2024

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Game Recap

WSH5

FinalSun, Nov 17, 2024Every game that night

VGK2

WSH beat VGK 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.63 expected goals to 4.19. VGK outshot WSH 42 to 25. A. Ovechkin scored three for WSH. S. Theodore had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Thompson stopped 40 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	2	2	1	5
VGK	1	1	0	2

1st 5:59WSHA. OvechkinPP0.03 xG
1st 12:26WSHJ. Chychrun0.04 xG
1st 19:52VGKB. Howden0.12 xG
2nd 2:49WSHJ. Vrana0.08 xG
2nd 7:24VGKK. Kolesar0.17 xG
2nd 17:38WSHA. Ovechkin0.14 xG
3rd 19:23WSHA. OvechkinEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

WSHVGK

25Shots on goal42

2.63Expected goals4.19

57Shot attempts84

235v5 shots on goal32

1/1Power play0/1

18Hits26

18Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways29

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.63 xGVGK 4.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH22 on goal, 5 scored

VGK42 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	3	0	3	5	1	1	+3	2	14:53	0:46
A. Protas	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	15:34	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+3	0	14:42	0:46
J. Vrana	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:59	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	20:34	0:46
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:12	0:46
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:43	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:41	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:37	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:47	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:32	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	5	0	3	0	0	23:40	0:46
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	2	2	3	0	0	22:24	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	+1	0	20:36	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	17:36	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	16:01	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	19:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	42	40	2	.952	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	5	1	1	-1	0	24:29	1:58
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	5	2	1	0	2	23:13	1:56
K. Kolesar	RW	1	0	1	1	3	2	+1	0	17:57	0:00
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	-1	0	12:50	0:02
T. Pearson	LW	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	12:07	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	21:51	1:55
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	20:59	1:56
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:48	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:01	0:05
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:42	0:04
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	8:10	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	23:29	0:04
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	22:37	2:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:30	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-2	0	18:52	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	18:31	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:03	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	24	20	4	.833	57:25	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLogan Thompson WSH Faces VGK, his team until May 202440 saves on 42, the win
Old teamNic Dowd VGK Faces WSH, his team until Mar 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.8, VGK 3.4	WSH 5, VGK 2
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	WSH 26.3, VGK 30.3	WSH 25, VGK 42
Win chance	VGK 60%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	5	1.17	1	33%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.9	5	0.78	3	33%	3
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.4	5	0.64	0	29%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.76	0	25%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	1	0.55	0	24%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	2	0.54	0	24%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	6	0.67	0	11%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	5	0.60	1	11%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.0	1	0.52	1	10%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	0	0.83	2	25%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	4	0.49	0	12%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	1.8	2	0.38	1	10%	1
VGK T. Hertl	1.8	5	0.65	1	23%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	0	0.54	0	20%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.7	1	0.47	2	13%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.6	0	0.39	0	16%	0
WSH J. Vrana	1.6	1	0.38	1	19%	1
WSH L. Eller	1.6	1	0.34	0	15%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.6	4	0.58	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.68	0	22%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.4	1	0.41	0	17%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.39	1	18%	1
VGK T. Pearson	1.4	1	0.37	1	14%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	0	0.20	0	6%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.29	1	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.3	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.3	1	0.27	0	13%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	0	0.27	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.28	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.1	5	0.24	0	3%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	1	0.34	1	13%	1
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	0	0.35	0	17%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	0	0.38	1	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.24	1	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	2	0.20	0	7%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	3	0.29	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.