Game Recap: ANA 0, PHI 6, January 11, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA0

FinalSat, Jan 11, 2025Every game that night

PHI6

PHI beat ANA 6-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.58 expected goals to 1.32. PHI outshot ANA 30 to 22. T. Konecny led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). C. York had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Ersson stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	0	0	0
PHI	2	1	3	6

1st 6:48PHIM. Frost0.20 xG
1st 18:11PHIJ. DrysdalePP0.13 xG
2nd 16:12PHIO. Tippett0.26 xG
3rd 0:24PHIR. Poehling0.21 xG
3rd 7:36PHIM. MichkovPP0.34 xG
3rd 8:55PHIG. Hathaway0.35 xG

Team Stats

ANAPHI

22Shots on goal30

1.32Expected goals3.58

42Shot attempts64

195v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play2/4

31Hits29

19Blocked shots12

28Penalty minutes14

10Giveaways15

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.32 xGPHI 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA20 on goal, 0 scored

PHI30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Killorn	LW	1	2	0	-1	0	17:52	0:53
I. Lundestrom	C	0	1	3	-1	0	16:35	0:00
M. McTavish	C	2	1	1	-1	2	15:51	0:54
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	0	-1	0	15:39	1:07
R. Fabbri	C	1	1	0	-1	2	15:14	0:55
B. Leason	RW	1	2	2	-1	0	14:57	1:06
R. Strome	C	1	2	0	-1	4	14:16	1:05
F. Vatrano	RW	2	3	0	-1	2	14:01	1:05
C. Gauthier	LW	3	2	0	-1	0	13:19	0:55
J. Harkins	C	1	2	1	-1	0	12:52	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	10:55	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	1	0	-1	4	10:07	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	2	4	1	-1	0	22:57	1:07
J. Trouba	D	2	2	3	-2	0	22:50	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	2	-2	0	22:15	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	3	2	1	-2	0	18:57	0:53
D. Helleson	D	0	1	4	0	0	16:28	0:00
R. Gudas	D	1	2	1	-1	14	14:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	30	24	6	.800	60:00	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	4	4	1	2	0	+2	0	15:51	3:36
M. Frost	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	2	15:37	3:17
O. Tippett	RW	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	15:09	3:37
G. Hathaway	RW	1	1	2	1	3	0	+2	2	13:47	0:00
R. Poehling	C	1	1	2	2	4	0	+2	0	11:57	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	2	15:57	3:51
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	4	14:56	1:13
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:12	2:30
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:07	2:39
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:45	2:31
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:41	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:00	1:14
J. Drysdale	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	18:11	3:21
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	2	22:15	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	5	2	2	+2	0	23:15	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	20:05	2:46
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	19:06	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	2	11:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	22	22	0	1.000	60:00	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJamie Drysdale PHI Faces ANA, his team until Jan 20241 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
Old teamRyan Poehling ANA Faces PHI, his team until Apr 20251 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, PHI 3.3	ANA 0, PHI 6
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	ANA 24.9, PHI 32.3	ANA 22, PHI 30
Win chance	PHI 57%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	3.2	5	0.73	2	30%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.8	1	1.04	4	35%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.8	2	0.65	0	29%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	4	0.68	1	22%	1
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	1	0.51	0	25%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.9	0	0.49	1	12%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.8	0	0.51	1	18%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	3	0.49	0	15%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	2	0.58	0	22%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.7	2	0.56	2	18%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.7	1	0.30	0	5%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	2	0.43	0	14%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.7	1	0.55	0	25%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	1	0.58	0	23%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	1	0.58	0	18%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	0	0.53	0	17%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	2	0.53	0	18%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	2	0.34	0	7%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.5	0	0.29	0	10%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	0	0.46	0	19%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	5	0.38	0	9%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	1	0.35	0	16%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.3	2	0.46	0	10%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	2	0.30	2	6%	1
ANA S. Colangelo	1.3	2	0.24	0	14%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	1	0.23	0	5%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.3	2	0.39	2	15%	1
PHI G. Hathaway	1.2	1	0.28	2	12%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	1	0.29	0	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	1.0	1	0.36	0	8%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	3	0.35	0	6%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	0	0.28	0	5%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.25	0	12%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.8	0	0.26	0	8%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.