Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
ANA5
FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night
PHI4

ANA beat PHI 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.45 expected goals to 2.76. T. Luneau led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Sanheim had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Dostal stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA0325
PHI2114
  1. 1st 13:59PHIM. MichkovPP0.17 xG
  2. 1st 15:02PHIP. MartonePP0.08 xG
  3. 2nd 8:38ANAL. Carlsson0.29 xG
  4. 2nd 13:07ANAA. Greer0.17 xG
  5. 2nd 15:04PHIT. FoersterSH0.02 xG
  6. 2nd 16:19ANAJ. Caulfield0.68 xG
  7. 3rd 2:00ANAT. Luneau0.02 xG
  8. 3rd 7:10ANAB. SenneckePP0.23 xG
  9. 3rd 8:17PHIM. Michkov0.18 xG

Team Stats

ANAPHI
26Shots on goal32
4.45Expected goals2.76
55Shot attempts54
145v5 shots on goal24
1/4Power play2/7
34Hits20
14Blocked shots10
29Penalty minutes13
11Giveaways17
1Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 4.45 xGPHI 2.76 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdPHI goal, 13:59PHI goal, 15:02ANA goal, 8:38ANA goal, 13:07PHI goal, 15:04ANA goal, 16:19ANA goal, 2:00ANA goal, 7:10PHI goal, 8:17

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA25 on goal, 5 scored
PHI32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC1122000220:265:22
C. GauthierLW0114010018:375:03
B. SenneckeRW101211+1218:292:44
A. KillornLW0113120015:020:48
T. WasheC011260+1014:260:00
J. CaulfieldRW101350+1012:293:04
A. GreerLW101210+21711:000:19
M. GranlundC000101-1021:425:20
N. NesterenkoC0001100012:320:48
S. ColangeloRW000341+1210:530:50
J. MalottLW0001700010:260:00
R. McQueenC000001008:480:00
T. LuneauD123202+3017:471:14
J. LaCombeD011011+1625:384:56
T. MitchellD011011+1020:060:22
D. HellesonD0000330019:020:00
N. WarrenD0000300018:230:00
T. HindsD0000000013:540:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal32284.87560:00Win
V. Husso000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ZegrasC022311-1021:326:44
P. MartoneRW112130+1018:256:29
M. MichkovRW2023000018:155:59
T. FoersterRW101300+1018:433:13
N. CatesLW011112+2212:340:31
C. DvorakC000100-1019:472:26
S. CouturierC000120-3215:490:09
D. BarkeyC000100-1015:105:59
A. BumpLW0003000014:392:07
N. AcciariC000121-1211:040:00
C. KnubleRW000301-3010:530:00
J. GaucherC000131-125:530:00
T. SanheimD011413-2027:012:54
J. DrysdaleD011200+2024:045:21
N. SeelerD011011-1018:450:00
O. BonkD000200-1017:372:59
R. RistolainenD000130-1014:340:00
H. McDonaldD000130-1510:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll26215.80857:49Loss
D. Vladar000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier13:30L. Carlsson13:37J. Caulfield9:25
Line 2M. Granlund10:17B. Sennecke14:05J. Malott9:50
Line 3A. Greer10:41T. Washe10:44S. Colangelo10:03
Line 4N. Nesterenko7:43R. McQueen8:11A. Killorn8:17
Pair 1J. LaCombe17:40N. Warren15:02
Pair 2D. Helleson13:19T. Mitchell14:54
Pair 3T. Hinds10:12T. Luneau14:00

PHI

Line 1T. Foerster12:35A. Bump11:45S. Couturier10:52
Line 2N. Cates10:11P. Martone10:30M. Michkov10:46
Line 3T. Zegras13:10C. Dvorak12:46N. Acciari8:15
Line 4C. Knuble10:52D. Barkey9:11J. Gaucher5:53
Pair 1T. Sanheim18:30O. Bonk13:56
Pair 2N. Seeler14:27J. Drysdale15:31
Pair 3R. Ristolainen12:16H. McDonald10:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-105-1104Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-120+1202Under
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+110-1252Under
PHI M. Michkov2.5+138-1803Over
PHI T. Foerster2.5+135-1653Over
PHI A. Bump1.5-125+1003Over
ANA A. Killorn1.5+100-1103Over
PHI C. Dvorak1.5-110-1201Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+125-1602Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-105-1100Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-155+1351Under
PHI N. Cates1.5+110-1601Under
PHI P. Martone1.5-192+1601Under
PHI S. Couturier1.5+100-1111Under
PHI T. Sanheim1.5+125-1904Over
PHI T. Zegras1.5-160+1253Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamTrevor Zegras PHI Faces ANA, his team until Apr 20252 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.9, PHI 2.8ANA 5, PHI 4
Total goals5.79
Shots on goalANA 28.2, PHI 24.4ANA 26, PHI 32
Win chanceANA 52%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.040.69127%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.720.76128%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.420.76226%1
PHI T. Foerster2.030.59128%1
PHI M. Michkov1.930.72224%2
PHI P. Martone1.810.54219%1
ANA M. Granlund1.810.72022%0
PHI A. Bump1.830.52021%0
PHI T. Zegras1.830.78225%0
PHI S. Couturier1.710.55018%0
ANA A. Killorn1.730.42119%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.600.66112%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.510.61021%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.540.51114%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.410.3807%0
ANA R. McQueen1.400.25012%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.420.43111%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.410.30012%0
ANA A. Greer1.320.32113%1
ANA T. Luneau1.320.3138%1
PHI N. Acciari1.310.32015%0
ANA T. Hinds1.200.1204%0
PHI N. Cates1.210.43115%0
PHI N. Seeler1.100.2416%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.130.27014%0
PHI O. Bonk1.020.5409%0
PHI D. Barkey0.910.44014%0
ANA T. Washe0.920.24112%0
PHI J. Gaucher0.910.1207%0
ANA N. Warren0.800.2104%0
ANA D. Helleson0.700.1804%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 31 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.