Game Recap: ANA 4, TOR 6, March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA4

FinalThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

TOR6

TOR beat ANA 6-4 despite fewer good chances: 3.84 expected goals to 5.42. ANA outshot TOR 40 to 28. M. Knies led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). P. Mintyukov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Woll stopped 36 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	2	1	1	4
TOR	1	2	3	6

1st 7:19TORM. Maccelli0.02 xG
1st 12:19ANAC. Gauthier0.47 xG
1st 14:26ANAI. Moore0.16 xG
2nd 2:55ANAP. Mintyukov0.13 xG
2nd 10:47TORA. MatthewsPP0.09 xG
2nd 16:26TORJ. TavaresPP0.02 xG
3rd 0:36TORW. NylanderPP0.15 xG
3rd 8:35TORB. GroulxSH0.14 xG
3rd 18:12TORM. KniesEN0.62 xG
3rd 19:34ANAA. Killorn0.09 xG

Team Stats

ANATOR

40Shots on goal28

5.42Expected goals3.84

76Shot attempts49

275v5 shots on goal15

0/5Power play3/7

15Hits34

9Blocked shots13

41Penalty minutes46

9Giveaways20

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 5.42 xGTOR 3.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA40 on goal, 4 scored

TOR26 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Viel	LW	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	11	8:32	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	19:24	7:58
C. Kreider	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	4	18:35	7:44
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	16:55	2:15
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	14:52	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	6:45	0:00
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	2	20:27	7:56
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	20:17	4:03
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	19:51	7:44
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:15	2:04
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	5	25:05	5:51
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	6	1	2	0	4	23:43	1:37
P. Mintyukov	D	1	0	1	5	0	3	+2	0	21:48	3:42
I. Moore	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	15:12	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:50	0:50
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15	10:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	27	22	5	.815	57:12	Loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	1	3	4	1	3	1	0	0	22:32	8:21
M. Maccelli	LW	1	2	3	1	1	1	0	0	13:51	5:17
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	23:57	8:06
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	21:04	8:12
B. Groulx	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	17:41	3:36
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:18	2:55
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17	15:00	2:41
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:06	0:54
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	14	12:12	2:45
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	11:15	3:37
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	10:04	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	5	3:43	0:04
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	20:27	0:11
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	0	2	20:22	1:08
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	4	21:52	7:05
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	18:01	4:38
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	16:35	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-2	2	12:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	40	36	4	.900	59:27	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund9:59M. McTavish9:29B. Sennecke11:01

Line 2C. Kreider9:03L. Carlsson9:51C. Gauthier8:53

Line 3A. Killorn8:58R. Poehling8:51J. Viel7:54

Line 4J. Harkins6:45T. Washe6:23

Pair 1J. LaCombe15:18J. Trouba13:06

Pair 2P. Mintyukov10:28D. Helleson11:56

Pair 3R. Gudas8:44O. Zellweger9:13

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander13:20E. Cowan11:54A. Matthews8:23

Line 2M. Domi9:27M. Knies8:55J. Tavares10:50

Line 3B. Groulx9:01N. Robertson7:16M. Maccelli8:22

Line 4C. Jarnkrok7:18J. Quillan4:44M. Pezzetta3:39

Pair 1M. Rielly13:16B. Carlo12:27

Pair 2S. Benoit11:18P. Myers9:50

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson12:21J. McCabe10:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBeckett Sennecke ANA Plays in his hometown5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.4, TOR 3.5	ANA 4, TOR 6
Total goals	6.9	10
Shots on goal	ANA 32.0, TOR 29.1	ANA 40, TOR 28
Win chance	TOR 52%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	2	1.19	1	45%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.7	2	0.83	1	31%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.8	5	0.85	0	25%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	3	1.18	2	39%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	4	0.92	2	34%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	2.3	4	0.76	0	24%	0
ANA J. Trouba	2.2	6	0.43	1	10%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	4	0.75	0	20%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.1	3	0.49	1	21%	1
ANA C. Kreider	2.1	1	0.68	1	31%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	1	0.80	4	27%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	0	0.65	1	13%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	0	0.67	0	13%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.9	2	0.50	0	18%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	2	0.47	0	21%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	1	0.27	0	9%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	1	0.58	3	19%	1
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	2	0.48	0	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	3	0.56	0	11%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.6	1	0.52	1	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	2	0.55	0	15%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.5	0	0.17	2	10%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.3	0	0.16	0	5%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	2	0.18	1	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	3	0.40	1	7%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	5	0.33	1	9%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	4	0.24	1	6%	1
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.16	1	7%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	2	0.27	0	13%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.8	0	0.22	0	6%	0
TOR B. Groulx	0.8	1	0.11	1	6%	1
TOR J. Quillan	0.8	0	0.13	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR M. Pezzetta	0.6	0	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.