Game Recap: ANA 4, VGK 3 (OT), November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA4

Final/OTSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

VGK3

ANA beat VGK 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.79 expected goals to 3.81. VGK outshot ANA 39 to 29. L. Carlsson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. P. Mrazek stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	1	2	0	1	4
VGK	1	0	2	0	3

1st 5:47VGKB. Howden0.19 xG
1st 15:49ANAF. Vatrano0.06 xG
2nd 10:39ANAL. Carlsson0.09 xG
2nd 16:50ANAL. Carlsson0.14 xG
3rd 3:56VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.17 xG
3rd 14:53VGKK. Korczak0.22 xG
OT 4:28ANAJ. Trouba0.18 xG

Team Stats

ANAVGK

29Shots on goal39

2.79Expected goals3.81

61Shot attempts73

255v5 shots on goal30

0/1Power play1/3

18Hits17

21Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways19

5Takeaways13

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.79 xGVGK 3.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA29 on goal, 4 scored

VGK38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	2	1	3	5	0	1	+2	2	21:42	1:06
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	2	20:16	1:04
F. Vatrano	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:43	1:05
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:52	1:13
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	17:17	0:54
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:13	0:55
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:45	0:56
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:04	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:18	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	8:36	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:01	0:00
J. Trouba	D	1	1	2	3	3	4	+3	0	26:36	0:47
O. Zellweger	D	0	2	2	5	1	3	+2	2	23:31	0:44
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	26:23	1:16
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	22:20	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:13	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	39	36	3	.923	64:28	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	24:22	4:10
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	23:05	3:34
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	21:00	3:34
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	4	4	1	+1	0	18:56	0:37
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	16:36	0:37
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	5:03	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	8	1	1	-1	0	20:58	3:34
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:54	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:56	0:37
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	2	12:54	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	9:39	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:03	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	-2	0	24:01	0:37
K. Korczak	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:37	0:01
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	25:08	3:34
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	20:45	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	16:40	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	29	25	4	.862	64:10	OT loss
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1T. Terry16:49L. Carlsson16:59C. Kreider15:29

Line 2M. McTavish15:16C. Gauthier15:32B. Sennecke14:44

Line 3R. Poehling12:58N. Nesterenko13:29A. Killorn12:50

Line 4F. Vatrano9:11J. Harkins8:25R. Johnston8:01

Pair 1J. Trouba21:47O. Zellweger21:10

Pair 2J. LaCombe20:49D. Helleson20:41

Pair 3P. Mintyukov11:42I. Moore11:43

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl16:25P. Dorofeyev16:25B. Saad17:23

Line 2J. Eichel16:53M. Marner16:50I. Barbashev17:30

Line 3R. Smith11:24B. Howden14:02W. Karlsson5:03

Line 4K. Kolesar12:36C. Sissons9:03C. Reinhardt7:03

Pair 1B. McNabb19:41S. Theodore19:39

Pair 2N. Hanifin19:55Z. Whitecloud15:25

Pair 3K. Korczak18:36J. Lauzon13:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, VGK 3.5	ANA 4, VGK 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	ANA 25.6, VGK 32.3	ANA 29, VGK 39
Win chance	VGK 64%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	3	1.22	1	34%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.3	3	0.75	1	36%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.1	2	0.76	0	27%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	8	0.83	0	30%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.3	3	0.82	0	12%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.3	1	0.56	1	12%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	1	0.74	1	25%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.1	1	0.61	0	31%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.1	0	0.60	1	22%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.1	2	1.33	1	32%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	2	0.56	0	20%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.8	1	0.43	0	20%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	5	0.69	3	22%	2
ANA F. Vatrano	1.7	1	0.34	1	17%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.48	0	20%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.6	1	0.48	0	18%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	5	0.23	2	6%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	4	0.46	0	10%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	4	0.69	1	24%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.5	0	0.46	0	16%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	3	0.28	2	6%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.4	3	0.45	1	21%	1
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.3	2	0.37	0	15%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	0	0.30	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.2	3	0.27	1	3%	1
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	0	0.27	0	7%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	0	0.37	0	13%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	2	0.16	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	2	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.9	2	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.24	0	9%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.12	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	1	0.20	0	10%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	1	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.