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Game Recap
ANA1
VGK3
VGK beat ANA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.96. ANA outshot VGK 34 to 22. M. Marner led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Hart stopped 33 of 34.
Team Stats
ANAVGK
34Shots on goal22
2.96Expected goals2.64
69Shot attempts50
265v5 shots on goal17
0/4Power play0/2
37Hits26
10Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes12
17Giveaways23
2Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.96 xGVGK 2.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 4:30 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:03 | 4:48 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:54 | 4:37 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:31 | 4:54 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:27 | 3:12 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:11 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:04 | 3:01 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:06 | 0:11 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:11 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:09 | 2:55 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 28:07 | 3:48 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:43 | 4:13 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:18 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:11 |
| T. Hinds | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:12 | 3:15 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:44 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:48 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 3:13 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:57 | 3:09 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:25 | 3:14 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:44 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 21:39 | 0:51 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25:48 | 3:04 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:09 | 0:02 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:46 | 0:56 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1T. Terry13:40L. Carlsson13:51C. Kreider11:45
Line 2A. Killorn12:29M. Granlund13:17B. Sennecke12:22
Line 3J. Viel12:55T. Washe9:57C. Gauthier8:53
Line 4R. Poehling6:46M. McTavish6:14
Pair 1J. LaCombe21:23J. Trouba18:34
Pair 2J. Carlson18:02P. Mintyukov15:46
Pair 3T. Hinds6:41D. Helleson7:25
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev14:37J. Eichel12:52P. Dorofeyev10:57
Line 3C. Sissons10:36C. Smith9:02N. Dowd8:34
Line 4K. Kolesar9:43W. Karlsson10:40T. Hertl9:18
Pair 1R. Andersson17:25N. Hanifin17:26
Pair 2B. McNabb16:52S. Theodore15:15
Pair 3K. Korczak12:34B. Hutton8:47
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 3.1, VGK 3.4 | ANA 1, VGK 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.6, VGK 29.1 | ANA 34, VGK 22 |
| Win chance | VGK 54% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 1 | 1.33 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.0 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.3 | 2 | 1.13 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 4 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.1 | 3 | 1.13 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA J. Carlson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.7 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 0.7 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA T. Hinds | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.