Game Recap: ANA 3, VGK 1, May 6, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA3

FinalWed, May 6, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

VGK1

ANA beat VGK 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.22 expected goals to 1.90. I. Barbashev had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. L. Dostal stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	1	2	3
VGK	0	0	1	1

2nd 11:23ANAB. Sennecke0.22 xG
3rd 6:36ANAL. Carlsson0.20 xG
3rd 16:30ANAJ. HarkinsEN0.63 xG
3rd 19:54VGKM. StonePP0.11 xG

Team Stats

ANAVGK

28Shots on goal22

3.22Expected goals1.90

62Shot attempts48

195v5 shots on goal16

0/5Power play1/4

39Hits39

14Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways17

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.22 xGVGK 1.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA27 on goal, 3 scored

VGK22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	21:03	6:02
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	20:18	5:44
C. Kreider	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	19:46	5:00
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	2	14:14	3:04
B. Sennecke	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:03	3:09
J. Harkins	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	9:44	0:04
J. Viel	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	2	9:15	0:04
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:27	2:58
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:07	2:59
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	16:42	3:47
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	2	13:55	0:04
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	2	8:50	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	24:53	5:32
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	22:23	3:04
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	5	3	+2	0	22:18	0:04
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	19:55	0:00
T. Hinds	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	4	19:05	3:37
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	1	4	0	-1	0	17:35	3:10
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	5	8	0	0	0	17:33	2:57
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:50	0:28
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	2	16:31	3:11
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-3	0	15:05	2:08
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:48	0:02
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:20	2:43
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:19	2:53
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:18	0:05
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	11:52	2:51
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	8:57	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	24:09	3:38
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	24:41	2:42
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	22:25	0:20
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	20:22	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:31	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	27	25	2	.926	59:36	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson15:01T. Terry14:18C. Kreider13:43

Line 2A. Killorn13:24C. Gauthier12:55M. Granlund11:20

Line 3J. Harkins9:16T. Washe10:16R. Johnston8:42

Line 4J. Viel9:11B. Sennecke7:54R. Poehling9:06

Pair 1J. LaCombe18:55J. Trouba17:47

Pair 2J. Carlson17:09P. Mintyukov15:41

Pair 3D. Helleson10:27T. Hinds10:35

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:36J. Eichel14:08M. Stone13:04

Line 2N. Dowd12:05C. Smith11:30C. Sissons11:36

Line 3M. Marner11:03B. Howden11:20W. Karlsson9:08

Line 4T. Hertl8:56K. Kolesar7:33P. Dorofeyev10:37

Pair 1N. Hanifin17:37R. Andersson16:53

Pair 2B. McNabb15:59S. Theodore17:09

Pair 3B. Hutton10:59K. Korczak11:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.0, VGK 3.5	ANA 3, VGK 1
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	ANA 27.5, VGK 29.4	ANA 28, VGK 22
Win chance	VGK 58%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	2	1.37	1	35%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	1	0.81	0	36%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.8	4	0.64	0	28%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.4	4	0.70	1	25%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.3	2	0.72	1	24%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.3	1	1.17	1	34%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	2	0.88	1	16%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.2	2	1.18	0	30%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.1	1	0.55	1	20%	1
VGK R. Andersson	2.1	3	0.55	0	14%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	0	0.58	0	11%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.9	0	0.61	0	23%	0
ANA J. Carlson	1.8	2	0.64	0	11%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	0	0.66	0	10%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	2	0.32	0	7%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.7	5	0.81	0	27%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	3	0.47	0	21%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.7	2	0.63	0	19%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.6	1	0.51	0	19%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.6	1	0.36	0	7%	0
ANA C. Kreider	1.5	2	0.54	1	26%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	2	0.54	0	24%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.3	0	0.21	1	10%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.3	0	0.33	0	13%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	0	0.38	1	14%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.1	1	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK C. Smith	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
VGK N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.33	0	14%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	2	0.27	0	7%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.26	0	11%	0
ANA T. Washe	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.7	0	0.22	0	3%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.5	1	0.10	1	4%	1
ANA T. Hinds	0.5	1	0.09	0	2%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	2	0.16	0	5%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.4	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.