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Game Recap
ANA4
FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026Every game that night
VGK3

ANA beat VGK 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.52 expected goals to 3.41. VGK outshot ANA 30 to 20. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Dostal stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA1304
VGK0033
  1. 1st 19:52ANAB. Sennecke0.10 xG
  2. 2nd 1:33ANAA. Killorn0.06 xG
  3. 2nd 2:28ANAJ. Malott0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 7:03ANAL. Carlsson0.32 xG
  5. 3rd 4:38VGKS. Theodore0.06 xG
  6. 3rd 6:07VGKT. HertlPP0.26 xG
  7. 3rd 17:10VGKB. Bowman0.48 xG

Team Stats

ANAVGK
20Shots on goal30
2.52Expected goals3.41
46Shot attempts64
185v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play1/3
25Hits18
16Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways15
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.52 xGVGK 3.41 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 19:52ANA goal, 1:33ANA goal, 2:28ANA goal, 7:03VGK goal, 4:38VGK goal, 6:07VGK goal, 17:10

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA19 on goal, 4 scored
VGK28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC112101+1017:432:58
M. GranlundC011000+1018:393:00
B. SenneckeRW101120+2018:043:00
C. GauthierLW011541+1417:513:00
T. WasheC011121+1016:030:00
A. KillornLW101200+1015:140:15
A. GreerLW011421-1013:240:17
J. MalottLW101151+1010:390:00
R. PoehlingC000202-1014:030:15
J. CaulfieldRW000020+1013:170:00
N. NesterenkoC0000300011:490:00
F. VatranoRW000000-1010:340:00
J. LaCombeD011212+1029:372:28
T. LuneauD011005+3026:580:47
N. WarrenD011010009:330:00
P. MintyukovD000102+1021:100:15
T. MitchellD000010-1020:380:00
T. HindsD000020009:150:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal30273.90060:00Win
V. Husso000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC0222010022:073:50
M. MarnerRW011111-1022:223:24
T. HertlC101512+1017:233:42
B. HowdenC0113100014:580:07
V. OlofssonLW0111010013:131:02
B. BowmanRW101300-2012:020:49
M. StoneRW000031+1020:393:42
W. KarlssonC000200-2020:130:49
I. BarbashevLW0001400215:050:05
T. ConnellyLW0000000010:300:44
N. DowdC000120-108:240:00
M. GatcombC000120-207:330:00
S. TheodoreD101402+1024:403:39
B. McNabbD011023+1017:570:00
N. HanifinD0001020019:330:05
R. AnderssonD000200-3219:141:18
J. LauzonD0003200016:480:00
P. WotherspoonD000001-3015:390:24
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart20164.80057:40Loss
A. Hill000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier14:51L. Carlsson14:22A. Greer13:07
Line 2J. Caulfield12:17T. Washe11:17J. Malott10:39
Line 3M. Granlund11:55B. Sennecke14:01A. Killorn11:32
Line 4R. Poehling11:27N. Nesterenko10:36F. Vatrano10:34
Pair 1J. LaCombe22:30T. Luneau23:41
Pair 2T. Mitchell17:41P. Mintyukov17:46
Pair 3T. Hinds9:15N. Warren7:09

VGK

Line 1M. Stone14:19J. Eichel15:28I. Barbashev15:00
Line 2W. Karlsson15:04M. Marner15:06B. Howden13:30
Line 3V. Olofsson12:11T. Hertl11:21T. Connelly9:04
Line 4N. Dowd6:45M. Gatcomb7:33B. Bowman11:13
Pair 1B. McNabb15:50S. Theodore16:43
Pair 2N. Hanifin17:35J. Lauzon15:27
Pair 3R. Andersson17:16P. Wotherspoon15:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5+115-1465Over
VGK J. Eichel3.5+122-1502Under
ANA B. Sennecke2.5+130-1601Under
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+120-1481Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+136-1451Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+132-1605Over
ANA A. Killorn1.5-115-1052Over
VGK B. Howden1.5-128-1053Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5-110-1101Under
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-125+1102Over
ANA M. Granlund1.5-125+1000Under
VGK M. Stone1.5-176+1400Under
VGK R. Andersson1.5-148+1302Over
ANA R. Poehling1.5+100-1352Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5-170+1364Over
VGK T. Connelly1.5-155+1150Under
VGK V. Olofsson1.5-165+1201Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-135+1102Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.1, VGK 3.5ANA 4, VGK 3
Total goals6.67
Shots on goalANA 29.0, VGK 28.0ANA 20, VGK 30
Win chanceVGK 56%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.021.25232%0
ANA C. Gauthier2.950.69128%0
VGK M. Marner2.511.27132%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.410.67223%1
ANA B. Sennecke2.410.59121%1
VGK M. Stone2.201.09032%0
VGK T. Hertl2.150.66124%1
VGK S. Theodore2.040.83116%1
VGK W. Karlsson2.020.66023%0
ANA A. Killorn1.920.50121%1
ANA M. Granlund1.800.66120%0
VGK R. Andersson1.820.49013%0
VGK V. Olofsson1.710.45120%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.720.60110%0
VGK B. Howden1.630.56125%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.610.66022%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.510.4509%0
ANA A. Greer1.540.38116%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.300.26014%0
VGK B. McNabb1.200.3516%0
VGK B. Bowman1.230.42113%1
ANA N. Nesterenko1.200.25010%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.110.22012%0
ANA T. Luneau1.100.2116%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.030.1604%0
ANA R. Poehling1.020.31011%0
VGK P. Wotherspoon1.000.3704%0
VGK N. Dowd0.910.30013%0
ANA P. Mintyukov0.910.2206%0
ANA T. Washe0.910.1518%0
ANA J. Malott0.710.1014%1
ANA T. Hinds0.600.0902%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.500.1204%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.