Game Recap: BUF 4, PHI 7, March 29, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF4

FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night

PHI7

PHI beat BUF 7-4, with the chances close: 2.88 expected goals to 3.08. PHI outshot BUF 32 to 21. R. Poehling led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Poehling had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Ersson stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	2	1	4
PHI	2	2	3	7

1st 5:27PHIM. Michkov0.07 xG
1st 5:56PHIJ. Pelletier0.15 xG
1st 10:57BUFJ. Quinn0.21 xG
2nd 1:41BUFJ. Peterka0.36 xG
2nd 8:13BUFJ. QuinnPP0.16 xG
2nd 10:36PHIM. Michkov0.07 xG
2nd 14:11PHIN. Cates0.15 xG
3rd 6:39PHIR. PoehlingPP0.09 xG
3rd 10:13PHIT. Foerster0.08 xG
3rd 15:05BUFA. TuchSH0.22 xG
3rd 15:34PHIR. PoehlingPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

BUFPHI

21Shots on goal32

3.08Expected goals2.88

52Shot attempts55

155v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play2/3

12Hits15

11Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways19

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.08 xGPHI 2.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF21 on goal, 4 scored

PHI31 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	0	3	3	2	0	3	+1	0	18:23	0:13
J. Quinn	RW	2	1	3	2	1	0	+1	0	16:56	0:10
J. Peterka	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:56	2:40
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:05	2:38
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	14:35	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	17:33	2:39
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	2	14:04	0:14
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:03	2:40
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	14:03	0:12
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:07	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:36	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:21	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	19:00	0:13
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	22:10	2:41
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	21:35	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	20:12	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	18:10	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:14	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	32	25	7	.781	60:00	Loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	1	2	3	1	2	0	+2	0	16:50	1:01
R. Poehling	C	2	1	3	4	1	0	0	0	15:44	0:59
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	2	0	3	-1	0	20:52	2:55
M. Michkov	RW	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	19:59	2:54
T. Foerster	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	18:25	2:56
B. Brink	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	16:27	2:53
O. Tippett	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	15:05	1:01
J. Pelletier	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:08	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9:23	1:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	19:24	2:54
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:17	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	8:58	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	14:04	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+3	0	25:10	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	+3	0	21:49	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:01	1:02
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:53	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	21	17	4	.810	60:00	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayTravis Sanheim PHI Turns 29 that day3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, PHI 3.1	BUF 4, PHI 7
Total goals	6.4	11
Shots on goal	BUF 25.6, PHI 28.3	BUF 21, PHI 32
Win chance	BUF 52%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	2.8	2	1.00	0	39%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.6	5	0.86	2	27%	2
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	2	0.96	2	32%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.2	1	0.80	2	28%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.2	3	0.65	0	19%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	2	0.81	1	30%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.1	2	0.53	2	23%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	2	0.59	2	26%	1
BUF J.Kulich	1.9	1	0.46	0	22%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.8	1	0.65	0	24%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	1	0.52	3	20%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	3	0.49	0	11%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	2	0.56	2	19%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	1	0.46	0	16%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.4	2	0.50	3	18%	2
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	2	0.66	3	22%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	1	0.26	0	5%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	3	0.43	1	7%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.3	4	0.42	3	17%	2
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.40	0	9%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	0	0.52	0	13%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.0	0	0.31	1	9%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.0	1	0.33	1	11%	1
PHI C. York	1.0	1	0.30	0	8%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.0	1	0.29	0	11%	0
BUF I. Rosen	0.9	2	0.18	0	9%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	2	0.26	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	1	0.32	1	11%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.7	2	0.12	0	6%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	0	0.31	1	6%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.31	0	14%	0
BUF J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	0	0.19	0	5%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.18	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.