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Game Recap
BUF5
Final/OTThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night
TOR4

BUF beat TOR 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.03 expected goals to 2.97. J. Quinn led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). O. Zellweger had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. U. Luukkonen stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
BUF11215
TOR22004
  1. 1st 2:24TORA. Matthews0.25 xG
  2. 1st 3:35BUFJ. Quinn0.19 xG
  3. 1st 13:10TORK. MarchenkoPP0.10 xG
  4. 2nd 2:41BUFJ. Quinn0.12 xG
  5. 2nd 11:13TORK. Marchenko0.08 xG
  6. 2nd 16:51TORK. Marchenko0.21 xG
  7. 3rd 10:05BUFD. Gilbert0.03 xG
  8. 3rd 12:16BUFM. Samuelsson0.09 xG
  9. OT 3:14BUFO. Power0.23 xG

Team Stats

BUFTOR
35Shots on goal30
3.03Expected goals2.97
60Shot attempts47
285v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/3
21Hits25
4Blocked shots10
13Penalty minutes11
17Giveaways20
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.03 xGTOR 2.97 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTTOR goal, 2:24BUF goal, 3:35TOR goal, 13:10BUF goal, 2:41TOR goal, 11:13TOR goal, 16:51BUF goal, 10:05BUF goal, 12:16BUF goal, 3:14

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF35 on goal, 5 scored
TOR30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. QuinnRW224400+4518:041:18
N. OstlundC022100+4021:391:44
Z. BensonLW022410+3221:181:44
T. ThompsonC0116300021:111:39
R. McLeodC0002200018:380:47
J. DoanRW000010-1017:221:08
P. KrebsC000130-2016:220:00
K. HeleniusC000420-2015:110:42
J. NorrisC000011-2014:500:42
B. MalenstynLW000020008:030:00
J. DanforthRW000000006:080:00
S. CarrickC000050045:460:00
M. SamuelssonD112300+1028:240:00
O. PowerD101200+1028:011:44
Z. MetsaD011001-1012:360:00
D. GilbertD101101+2210:370:00
O. ZellwegerD0006010024:280:42
L. CrevierD000110+1016:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
U. Luukkonen30264.86763:14Win
C. Ellis000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. MarchenkoRW3033300018:362:14
J. TavaresC0220010011:471:48
A. MatthewsC1011100022:143:04
J. RoslovicC011501-1019:040:50
C. SissonsC011031-1017:490:00
E. CowanRW0112310016:390:11
W. NylanderRW0005000022:182:53
N. PaulLW0001100017:130:00
T. BluegerC0003400014:430:00
B. DuhaimeLW000011-1011:420:00
G. McKennaLW000100-106:360:00
Z. MacEwenRW000030-105:270:00
D. RaddyshD011313+3027:092:53
J. McCabeD0000200023:300:12
O. Ekman-LarssonD0000210419:350:00
M. RiellyD000300-2218:351:04
T. StecherD000111-3517:080:00
N. BlankenburgD000200-1015:370:11
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky35305.85763:14OT loss
A. Stolarz000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1N. Ostlund17:22Z. Benson17:12J. Quinn15:57
Line 2T. Thompson17:15J. Doan16:14R. McLeod14:25
Line 3J. Norris12:29K. Helenius13:36P. Krebs16:22
Line 4B. Malenstyn6:25J. Danforth6:01S. Carrick5:46
Pair 1O. Zellweger21:48M. Samuelsson24:31
Pair 2O. Power22:28Z. Metsa11:23
Pair 3D. Gilbert10:37L. Crevier14:49

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander17:33A. Matthews16:09J. Roslovic16:38
Line 2N. Paul16:16K. Marchenko15:21J. Tavares9:59
Line 3C. Sissons15:01E. Cowan15:23G. McKenna6:36
Line 4T. Blueger13:01B. Duhaime11:09Z. MacEwen5:27
Pair 1J. McCabe20:57D. Raddysh21:22
Pair 2T. Stecher15:50M. Rielly16:16
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson17:38N. Blankenburg14:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 18 overs hit (61%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5-105-1141Under
BUF T. Thompson3.5-102-1206Over
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+120-1303Over
BUF J. Quinn2.5-111+1004Over
TOR J. Tavares2.5+126-1550Under
TOR W. Nylander2.5-110+1005Over
TOR E. Cowan1.5-110+1052Over
BUF J. Doan1.5-175+1360Under
BUF J. Norris1.5+110-1400Under
TOR J. Roslovic1.5-180+1355Over
BUF K. Helenius1.5-120-1154Over
BUF L. Crevier1.5+125-1551Under
BUF M. Samuelsson1.5+125-1703Over
BUF N. Ostlund1.5-115+1001Under
TOR N. Paul1.5+115-1551Under
BUF O. Power1.5-120+1052Over
BUF O. Zellweger1.5-125-1026Over
BUF Z. Benson1.5-155+1404Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownOwen Power BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)1 G, 2 SOG
  • HometownRyan McLeod BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)2 SOG
  • HometownSam Carrick BUF Plays near home (born in Stouffville)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBUF 3.7, TOR 3.1BUF 5, TOR 4
Total goals6.79
Shots on goalBUF 31.3, TOR 25.7BUF 35, TOR 30
Win chanceBUF 58%BUF won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.811.17145%1
BUF T. Thompson3.761.09139%0
TOR W. Nylander2.851.24041%0
BUF J. Quinn2.840.78425%2
TOR D. Raddysh2.830.76115%0
TOR K. Marchenko2.630.86331%3
BUF Z. Benson2.340.79223%0
TOR J. Tavares2.300.86233%0
BUF J. Doan2.200.63023%0
TOR J. Roslovic2.150.55123%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.960.38012%0
BUF K. Helenius1.940.43017%0
TOR G. McKenna1.710.55019%0
TOR N. Paul1.710.46022%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.710.64222%0
BUF O. Power1.620.62113%1
BUF J. Norris1.600.58023%0
TOR E. Cowan1.420.46118%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.430.46211%1
TOR M. Rielly1.430.4408%0
BUF P. Krebs1.210.51014%0
TOR C. Sissons1.200.29113%0
BUF L. Crevier1.210.2406%0
BUF R. McLeod1.120.55017%0
TOR T. Blueger1.030.30011%0
BUF J. Danforth1.000.25010%0
TOR J. McCabe1.000.3106%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.000.2805%0
TOR T. Stecher1.010.1804%0
BUF S. Carrick0.900.1808%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.800.1709%0
BUF Z. Metsa0.800.2216%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.800.1907%0
TOR N. Blankenburg0.720.1804%0
BUF D. Gilbert0.410.1812%1

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.