PIT beat CBJ 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.32 expected goals to 4.97. CBJ outshot PIT 47 to 34. B. Rust led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Z. Werenski had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 44 of 47.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| PIT | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 5:28PITE. Malkin0.07 xG
- 1st 13:51PITN. Acciari0.15 xG
- 1st 14:07CBJB. Jenner0.06 xG
- 1st 14:53PITR. Rakell0.15 xG
- 2nd 1:35CBJJ. Danforth0.29 xG
- 2nd 8:15PITB. Imama0.13 xG
- 2nd 15:31PITS. Crosby0.05 xG
- 3rd 3:45CBJK. Johnson0.14 xG
- 3rd 18:03PITB. RustEN0.37 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 4.97 xGPIT 3.32 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 3:06 |
| B. Jenner | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 2:25 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:25 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:08 | 3:20 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:31 | 3:16 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:20 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:42 | 0:04 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:25 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:39 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:25 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 29:15 | 3:20 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 58:19 | Loss |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:07 | 1:19 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:21 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:43 | 1:19 |
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:26 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:44 | 0:24 |
| N. Acciari | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 1:23 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:22 |
| B. Imama | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:34 | 1:17 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:26 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:28 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 47 | 44 | 3 | .936 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.0, PIT 3.5 | CBJ 3, PIT 6 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 27.5, PIT 31.0 | CBJ 47, PIT 34 |
| Win chance | PIT 58% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 8 | 0.92 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 3 | 1.27 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 5 | 0.98 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.7 | 1 | 0.90 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.3 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.2 | 6 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.0 | 4 | 0.89 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.9 | 4 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 5 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.2 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.2 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Kunin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.4 | 2 | 0.08 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.