Game Recap: CBJ 4, PIT 3 (SO), January 17, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ4

Final/SOSat, Jan 17, 2026Every game that night

PIT3

CBJ beat PIT 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.78 expected goals to 4.55. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Rakell had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. E. Merzlikins stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CBJ	1	2	0	1	4
PIT	2	0	1	0	3

1st 2:42CBJZ. Aston-Reese0.22 xG
1st 9:59PITC. Clifton0.09 xG
1st 17:52PITR. Rakell0.25 xG
2nd 7:32CBJK. Marchenko0.10 xG
2nd 17:38CBJD. Heinen0.07 xG
3rd 18:59PITS. Crosby0.09 xG

Team Stats

CBJPIT

26Shots on goal33

2.78Expected goals4.55

53Shot attempts79

175v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/3

24Hits17

24Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways14

10Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.78 xGPIT 4.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ24 on goal, 3 scored

PIT33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	0	18:38	2:52
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	10:33	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	0	9:25	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	0	1	1	5	1	+1	2	7:32	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	21:17	0:47
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	2	20:46	3:15
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	20:30	3:19
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:31	3:12
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:59	0:49
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	15:37	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:40	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:57	0:40
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	29:18	2:49
E. Gudbranson	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	-1	0	19:50	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:40	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	4	0	6	0	0	28:06	1:06
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	27:07	1:11
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	4:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	33	30	3	.909	65:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	21:57	4:01
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	7	1	0	+1	0	21:55	3:59
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	6	0	2	+1	0	20:06	4:09
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:24	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	+2	0	21:55	3:58
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:59	2:02
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:05	1:56
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:14	1:57
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:13	1:53
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:50	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	11:12	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	10:09	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	25:55	4:07
C. Clifton	D	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	18:13	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	21:54	1:53
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:41	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	16:46	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:06	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	26	23	3	.885	64:26	OT loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko14:12A. Fantilli15:06C. Sillinger12:03

Line 2B. Jenner15:49K. Johnson13:52S. Monahan12:25

Line 3C. Coyle11:40M. Olivier11:54D. Voronkov8:17

Line 4D. Heinen9:59B. Gaunce7:47Z. Aston-Reese7:32

Pair 1I. Provorov21:17D. Severson21:25

Pair 2E. Gudbranson15:38Z. Werenski20:25

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:50R. Rakell15:01B. Rust14:23

Line 2T. Novak12:10E. Chinakhov13:09E. Malkin12:28

Line 3A. Mantha10:43B. Kindel12:22J. Brazeau10:20

Line 4N. Acciari8:48C. Dewar8:34B. Lizotte8:12

Pair 1K. Letang17:07B. Kulak16:43

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon15:31J. Ivany14:42

Pair 3C. Clifton15:19R. Shea14:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEgor Chinakhov PIT Faces CBJ, his team until Dec 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, PIT 3.6	CBJ 4, PIT 3
Total goals	6.8	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.7, PIT 31.9	CBJ 26, PIT 33
Win chance	PIT 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	0.95	1	21%	0
PIT R. Rakell	3.0	7	0.86	1	31%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.9	4	0.93	0	33%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	3	1.18	2	37%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	4	0.79	1	29%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	3	0.70	0	28%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	0	0.58	0	24%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	6	0.88	1	27%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	0	0.56	1	13%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.0	3	0.43	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	0	0.48	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.7	2	0.58	0	20%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	2	0.56	0	20%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.7	1	0.39	0	17%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	2	0.38	0	8%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	0	0.53	0	21%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	0	0.58	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	0	0.36	0	12%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.49	1	19%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	0	0.35	0	14%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	2	0.43	0	19%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.5	2	0.26	0	7%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.35	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	4	0.39	0	9%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.2	2	0.22	1	11%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	2	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	0	0.24	0	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.36	0	16%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.25	0	4%	0
PIT J. Ivany	1.0	0	0.16	0	3%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.21	1	4%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.20	1	5%	1
CBJ D. Heinen	0.8	3	0.25	1	11%	1
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.8	1	0.16	1	7%	1
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.24	0	6%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.7	1	0.21	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.