Game Recap: CBJ 5, TOR 1, January 22, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ5

FinalWed, Jan 22, 2025Every game that night

TOR1

CBJ beat TOR 5-1, with the chances close: 3.44 expected goals to 3.44. TOR outshot CBJ 29 to 19. A. Fantilli scored three for CBJ. W. Nylander had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. E. Merzlikins stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	2	2	5
TOR	0	0	1	1

1st 15:40CBJA. FantilliSH0.26 xG
2nd 13:40CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.25 xG
2nd 15:21CBJA. Fantilli0.11 xG
3rd 5:56CBJL. Del Bel Belluz0.15 xG
3rd 9:22TORA. Matthews0.24 xG
3rd 12:02CBJA. FantilliEN0.83 xG

Team Stats

CBJTOR

19Shots on goal29

3.44Expected goals3.44

39Shot attempts76

155v5 shots on goal22

0/0Power play0/3

11Hits18

25Blocked shots11

13Penalty minutes9

15Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.44 xGTOR 3.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ18 on goal, 5 scored

TOR29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	3	0	3	4	0	0	+3	0	18:37	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	15:49	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:32	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:54	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	16:12	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	5	13:48	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	2	12:07	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:16	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:10	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:43	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:41	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+2	2	24:43	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	1	3	4	+1	0	24:23	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	20:37	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	17:40	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:39	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+3	0	10:41	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	23:00	3:08
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	6	1	2	-3	2	19:36	3:31
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:34	3:08
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:35	3:08
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:02	2:27
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:36	2:50
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	14:16	2:50
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:41	3:08
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:30	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:27	0:02
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:08	0:02
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	5	8:07	0:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	23:19	2:27
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:52	2:50
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:14	0:02
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	19:16	0:25
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:37	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	13:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	18	14	4	.778	59:14	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKirill Marchenko TOR Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20261 A, 1 SOG
HometownAdam Fantilli CBJ Plays near home (born in Nobleton)3 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.0, TOR 3.5	CBJ 5, TOR 1
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	CBJ 29.2, TOR 30.9	CBJ 19, TOR 29
Win chance	TOR 59%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	6	1.28	1	50%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	1	0.92	1	17%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.5	6	1.18	1	42%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	1	0.79	1	30%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.8	1	0.66	0	31%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.3	1	0.68	1	28%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.3	4	1.41	0	34%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	4	0.56	3	22%	3
TOR M. Knies	2.0	1	0.75	0	30%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	0	0.63	0	10%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.9	1	0.46	1	9%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	0	0.57	1	21%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.42	0	20%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	1	0.59	0	16%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.6	4	0.45	1	17%	1
CBJ L. Belluz	1.4	3	0.43	2	16%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.26	1	5%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	0	0.25	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	0	0.32	1	14%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	1	0.38	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.2	2	0.28	0	13%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	0	0.36	1	6%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	1	0.32	0	7%	0
TOR F. Minten	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	2	0.28	0	4%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.8	0	0.30	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.11	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.5	0	0.09	0	2%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.4	2	0.14	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.4	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.