Game Recap: CBJ 0, TOR 5, April 5, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ0

FinalSat, Apr 5, 2025Every game that night

TOR5

TOR beat CBJ 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.13 expected goals to 1.57. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Knies had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Stolarz stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	0	0	0
TOR	1	1	3	5

1st 10:03TORN. Robertson0.13 xG
2nd 12:28TORN. Robertson0.12 xG
3rd 1:11TORW. Nylander0.18 xG
3rd 4:21TORW. Nylander0.07 xG
3rd 16:27TORA. Matthews0.52 xG

Team Stats

CBJTOR

27Shots on goal27

1.57Expected goals3.13

58Shot attempts54

255v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play0/1

18Hits24

15Blocked shots14

12Penalty minutes14

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.57 xGTOR 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ27 on goal, 0 scored

TOR27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	2	2	0	-4	0	19:08	1:46
A. Fantilli	C	3	2	0	-3	0	18:48	0:16
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	-1	0	16:45	1:46
K. Marchenko	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	16:35	1:48
S. Monahan	C	3	1	1	0	0	15:34	1:44
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	0	0	0	15:27	0:12
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	1	1	-2	0	14:53	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	3	1	0	5	13:37	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	3	1	1	0	0	13:35	0:14
J. Danforth	RW	0	1	2	-1	0	12:01	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	1	0	0	-1	5	10:50	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	2	0	-1	0	10:18	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	5	1	1	-3	0	23:49	1:41
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	-3	0	20:20	0:19
D. Fabbro	D	3	0	3	-2	2	20:04	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	1	1	1	-1	0	18:48	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	2	0	0	18:13	0:14
J. Johnson	D	1	2	1	-1	0	17:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	27	22	5	.815	60:00	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	0	2	3	0	1	+2	0	17:43	1:25
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	16:42	1:23
N. Robertson	LW	2	0	2	2	2	0	+2	0	10:09	0:35
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:19	1:24
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	6	4	0	+1	2	16:22	1:25
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	13:50	0:36
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	11:38	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	0	18:38	1:26
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	17:25	0:34
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:06	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	13:34	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	5	11:14	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	20:42	0:37
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+3	0	20:53	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	23:32	0:35
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	20:11	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	16:05	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	5	15:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKirill Marchenko TOR Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
HometownAdam Fantilli CBJ Plays near home (born in Nobleton)3 SOG
HometownSean Monahan CBJ Plays near home (born in Brampton)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, TOR 3.8	CBJ 0, TOR 5
Total goals	7.0	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 29.6, TOR 31.1	CBJ 27, TOR 27
Win chance	TOR 59%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.3	4	1.35	2	49%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	5	0.87	0	16%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.2	3	1.15	2	41%	2
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	3	1.03	0	37%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.5	0	0.57	0	27%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	2	0.74	0	29%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.4	2	0.61	0	26%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	3	0.77	0	24%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	1	1.32	1	33%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	3	0.58	0	23%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	6	0.79	1	30%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	3	0.53	0	22%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	2	0.41	2	20%	2
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	0	0.66	0	22%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.35	0	12%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	1	0.57	2	9%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	1	0.41	0	7%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.4	0	0.19	0	5%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.4	3	0.42	0	15%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	0	0.55	1	15%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.3	0	0.41	0	17%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	3	0.32	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	0	0.35	0	7%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.2	1	0.20	0	10%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.2	1	0.39	0	15%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	0	0.29	0	7%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	1	0.18	1	5%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.9	1	0.26	1	11%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.8	0	0.26	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.13	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.6	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.