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Game Recap
CBJ2
VGK1
CBJ beat VGK 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.67 expected goals to 2.67. A. Fantilli had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. E. Merzlikins stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:58VGKT. Hertl0.09 xG
- 1st 18:34CBJA. Fantilli0.39 xG
- OT 0:52CBJC. Sillinger0.72 xG
Team Stats
CBJVGK
24Shots on goal26
2.67Expected goals2.67
46Shot attempts56
215v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/1
18Hits10
13Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways11
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.67 xGVGK 2.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 1:05 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:12 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:06 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:51 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:05 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:54 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:55 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:04 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:05 | 1:06 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:20 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:54 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:48 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:52 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:48 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:50 | 1:48 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 1:48 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 1:48 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:12 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:12 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:12 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Lavoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Burke | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:30 | 0:12 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:21 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 1:39 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:52 | OT loss |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.5, VGK 3.4 | CBJ 2, VGK 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.2, VGK 32.2 | CBJ 24, VGK 26 |
| Win chance | VGK 65% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.8 | 2 | 1.35 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.9 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.4 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.3 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.3 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.3 | 0 | 1.18 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 2.1 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.7 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK C. Burke | 1.5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.5 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VGK R. Lavoie | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.