Game Recap: CBJ 4, WSH 1, April 13, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ4

FinalSun, Apr 13, 2025Every game that night

WSH1

CBJ beat WSH 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.59 expected goals to 3.08. WSH outshot CBJ 31 to 23. A. Fantilli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Roy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Greaves stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	1	2	4
WSH	1	0	0	1

1st 1:10WSHA. Ovechkin0.09 xG
1st 14:36CBJZ. Werenski0.03 xG
2nd 4:39CBJA. Fantilli0.16 xG
3rd 1:57CBJA. Fantilli0.21 xG
3rd 15:48CBJD. Voronkov0.18 xG

Team Stats

CBJWSH

23Shots on goal31

1.59Expected goals3.08

48Shot attempts63

195v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play0/2

16Hits32

12Blocked shots16

9Penalty minutes11

11Giveaways12

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.59 xGWSH 3.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ22 on goal, 4 scored

WSH31 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	2	0	2	2	2	0	+2	0	13:54	0:26
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	19:41	3:54
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:14	3:58
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	13:24	0:32
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:58	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	20:47	3:33
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:37	3:29
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:04	0:40
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:15	0:11
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	12:55	0:11
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:14	0:11
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	5	11:09	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	25:04	3:53
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	24:19	0:27
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	19:38	0:35
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	19:20	0:19
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	2	16:44	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	11:43	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	6	4	0	0	0	17:07	2:28
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:29	2:25
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	4	3	-2	0	19:58	2:00
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	19:27	1:57
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:43	0:33
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:24	0:30
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	14:04	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:29	0:02
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	11:59	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:17	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	10:53	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:25	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	2	22:19	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	22:02	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	-2	0	21:40	0:05
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	20:46	2:30
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:22	0:00
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	5	10:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	23	19	4	.826	60:00	Loss
H. Shepard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBoone Jenner WSH First game against CBJ since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.0, WSH 3.7	CBJ 4, WSH 1
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 26.7, WSH 30.1	CBJ 23, WSH 31
Win chance	WSH 61%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.6	6	1.03	1	42%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	2	0.68	1	16%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	0	0.59	0	18%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	0	0.56	0	25%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.2	2	0.64	0	26%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.76	0	31%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	1	0.61	0	24%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.0	1	0.36	0	18%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.0	2	0.52	2	22%	2
WSH D. Strome	2.0	2	0.94	1	29%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	0	0.69	1	22%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	1	0.77	0	26%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.8	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.38	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.7	4	0.45	1	19%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	0	0.61	1	20%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.4	4	0.37	0	7%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	0	0.36	0	15%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.3	3	0.45	0	20%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.3	2	0.30	0	13%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.3	2	0.31	0	12%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	1	0.33	1	8%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.3	1	0.43	1	16%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	3	0.27	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	1	0.28	0	13%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.1	0	0.20	0	10%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	3	0.22	0	10%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	1	0.33	0	8%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	0	0.40	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.37	0	18%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	2	0.28	0	8%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.4	1	0.12	0	3%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.4	2	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.