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Game Recap
DAL4
CBJ6
CBJ beat DAL 6-4, with the chances close: 3.59 expected goals to 3.77. K. Marchenko led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). I. Provorov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. E. Merzlikins stopped 18 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CBJ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 0:30CBJK. Marchenko0.53 xG
- 1st 4:37CBJM. Olivier0.09 xG
- 1st 9:37DALJ. Benn0.29 xG
- 2nd 1:11CBJK. Marchenko0.17 xG
- 2nd 8:46CBJI. Provorov0.02 xG
- 2nd 9:38DALR. Hintz0.22 xG
- 2nd 13:57DALJ. Robertson0.15 xG
- 3rd 2:37CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.08 xG
- 3rd 17:53DALM. Bourque0.30 xG
- 3rd 19:28CBJA. FantilliEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
DALCBJ
22Shots on goal29
3.77Expected goals3.59
66Shot attempts55
175v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play0/2
10Hits21
13Blocked shots24
4Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways15
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.77 xGCBJ 3.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 4:36 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 3:18 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:13 | 3:08 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 2:17 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:56 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:46 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 1:58 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:58 | 3:11 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:26 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:24 | 4:25 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:27 | 0:24 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:35 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 56:21 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 2:12 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:06 | 3:01 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:59 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:59 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:00 | 2:56 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:57 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:03 | 1:52 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| J. LaBate | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:52 | 1:04 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 28:18 | 3:11 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 4 | 19:44 | 0:49 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.3, CBJ 2.7 | DAL 4, CBJ 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 29.8, CBJ 27.5 | DAL 22, CBJ 29 |
| Win chance | DAL 59% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.5 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.7 | 6 | 0.93 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.6 | 3 | 0.66 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.66 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 3 | 0.68 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 5 | 0.35 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.