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Game Recap
DAL4
PHI1
DAL beat PHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.32 expected goals to 2.18. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Bourque had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. DeSmith stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
DALPHI
23Shots on goal28
2.32Expected goals2.18
56Shot attempts56
205v5 shots on goal23
0/1Power play0/2
5Hits21
15Blocked shots20
4Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways17
7Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.32 xGPHI 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:48 | 1:13 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:47 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:10 | 1:11 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:43 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:12 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:13 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:47 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:49 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:48 | 1:17 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:48 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:21 | 2:28 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:20 | 1:53 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:01 | 2:01 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:53 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 2:27 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:13 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:46 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:20 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:20 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:13 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:13 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:13 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:40 | 1:23 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:13 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:24 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 58:41 | Loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.4, PHI 2.7 | DAL 4, PHI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 27.8, PHI 27.5 | DAL 23, PHI 28 |
| Win chance | DAL 61% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.8 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.3 | 0 | 0.94 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.0 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.