Game Recap: FLA 7, PHI 5, December 5, 2024

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Game Recap

FLA7

FinalThu, Dec 5, 2024Every game that night

PHI5

FLA beat PHI 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.31 expected goals to 2.56. M. Tkachuk led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). G. Hathaway had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Knight stopped 29 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	2	3	7
PHI	0	4	1	5

1st 2:36FLAE. Rodrigues0.19 xG
1st 6:57FLAN. Mikkola0.04 xG
2nd 3:00FLAA. BarkovPP0.19 xG
2nd 7:13PHIT. FoersterPP0.28 xG
2nd 9:31PHIN. Seeler0.06 xG
2nd 13:35FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.38 xG
2nd 17:41PHIO. Tippett0.06 xG
2nd 18:04PHIO. Tippett0.17 xG
3rd 5:39PHIG. Hathaway0.41 xG
3rd 14:43FLAG. Forsling0.04 xG
3rd 18:01FLAS. ReinhartPP0.22 xG
3rd 19:49FLAM. TkachukEN0.50 xG

Team Stats

FLAPHI

28Shots on goal34

3.31Expected goals2.56

63Shot attempts60

175v5 shots on goal30

4/5Power play1/4

37Hits16

13Blocked shots21

12Penalty minutes14

8Giveaways7

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.31 xGPHI 2.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA27 on goal, 7 scored

PHI34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	4	5	4	2	0	0	0	17:57	4:42
S. Reinhart	C	1	2	3	4	2	1	0	0	23:50	4:47
A. Barkov	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	23:31	4:41
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	19:35	3:29
E. Rodrigues	C	1	1	2	3	3	1	+1	0	13:10	0:04
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	1	7	2	+1	2	16:29	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:23	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:07	0:01
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	12:35	0:06
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	8:06	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:42	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-2	0	6:58	0:00
G. Forsling	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	23:27	0:01
N. Mikkola	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	22:19	0:33
D. Kulikov	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	2	20:02	0:39
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	22:12	3:34
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:12	1:21
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	11:26	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	34	29	5	.853	59:16	Win
C. Driedger	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	0	3	3	1	0	1	+1	0	14:21	4:39
O. Tippett	RW	2	0	2	3	2	1	+1	0	13:38	2:01
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	6	20:08	1:57
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:48	2:14
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	12:27	0:15
G. Hathaway	RW	1	0	1	5	2	2	+1	0	12:07	0:12
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	25:55	4:23
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	22:40	4:00
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	12:47	0:19
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:16	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	11:56	4:14
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	10:03	1:37
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	17:24	0:17
N. Seeler	D	1	0	1	3	3	5	0	0	14:48	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	25:24	1:45
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	23:03	0:20
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	19:40	4:32
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	7	5	2	.714	20:00
A. Kolosov	20	16	4	.800	39:27	Loss

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.2, PHI 2.7	FLA 7, PHI 5
Total goals	5.8	12
Shots on goal	FLA 28.3, PHI 28.3	FLA 28, PHI 34
Win chance	FLA 58%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.9	4	1.09	5	32%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	2	0.84	2	33%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.7	3	0.91	0	32%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	3	0.51	2	22%	2
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	1	0.72	1	28%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	4	0.98	3	39%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.3	1	0.53	0	18%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.2	2	1.05	2	29%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	2.0	3	0.51	0	11%	0
PHI J. Farabee	2.0	3	0.48	1	20%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	3	0.53	2	19%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	2	0.51	1	12%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	1	0.53	0	12%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.6	1	0.53	0	17%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.6	1	0.64	3	22%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	0	0.28	1	4%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	1	0.36	1	19%	1
PHI M. Frost	1.5	1	0.46	0	15%	0
PHI C. York	1.5	1	0.36	0	9%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.4	3	0.36	1	13%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	1	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.2	5	0.27	1	12%	1
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	2	0.26	0	6%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	3	0.20	1	4%	1
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.34	0	13%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.30	0	6%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.0	2	0.31	0	11%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.0	0	0.35	0	13%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	3	0.24	1	4%	1
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
FLA A. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.31	0	8%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.32	1	14%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	1	0.25	1	5%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	1	0.19	0	6%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	0	0.29	0	5%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.