Game Recap: FLA 3, PHI 4, January 13, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA3

FinalMon, Jan 13, 2025Every game that night

PHI4

PHI beat FLA 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 2.79 expected goals to 1.78. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Frost had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Ersson stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	0	1	3
PHI	0	1	3	4

1st 7:59FLAS. ReinhartSH0.10 xG
1st 9:34FLAU. Balinskis0.05 xG
2nd 7:51PHIG. Hathaway0.01 xG
3rd 2:01PHIN. CatesPP0.29 xG
3rd 3:35FLAS. ReinhartPP0.21 xG
3rd 5:59PHIM. FrostPP0.15 xG
3rd 14:09PHIN. Cates0.29 xG

Team Stats

FLAPHI

23Shots on goal29

1.78Expected goals2.79

61Shot attempts44

165v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play2/5

36Hits22

10Blocked shots27

14Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways20

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.78 xGPHI 2.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 3 scored

PHI28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	2	0	2	3	1	1	+1	0	21:53	2:00
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	-1	4	19:47	2:00
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	18:06	2:01
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	2	12:20	0:39
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	17:02	2:02
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:56	0:39
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	16:19	0:38
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+2	0	15:52	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	2	13:58	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:57	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	8:11	0:01
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:29	0:39
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	21:24	1:47
U. Balinskis	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	17:11	0:51
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	23:04	0:02
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	20:19	0:01
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	18:08	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	29	25	4	.862	57:40	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	2	0	2	2	0	1	+1	0	16:27	3:03
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:25	5:47
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	7	3	1	0	0	17:08	5:21
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:49	3:39
G. Hathaway	RW	1	0	1	1	5	1	+1	0	11:14	0:03
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	21:20	5:51
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	19:20	5:47
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	14:45	0:06
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:33	3:09
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	13:09	0:09
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	4	10:33	0:05
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:21	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	0	0	24:10	3:07
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	22:12	3:48
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	17:33	5:15
E. Zamula	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	14:56	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	20:32	0:05
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	+1	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	23	20	3	.870	59:44	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.2, PHI 2.8	FLA 3, PHI 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	FLA 27.9, PHI 28.5	FLA 23, PHI 29
Win chance	FLA 56%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.8	1	1.06	1	31%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	3	0.60	0	26%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.6	3	0.83	0	32%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	3	1.05	2	42%	2
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	1	0.66	0	26%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	0	1.11	1	31%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	2	0.86	0	30%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	3	0.52	0	13%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	2	0.58	1	21%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.7	1	0.58	0	18%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.7	2	0.48	1	18%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.7	1	0.43	1	22%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	1	0.44	1	10%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.6	0	0.44	0	15%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.5	7	0.49	1	17%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	3	0.26	1	4%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	3	0.36	0	12%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.4	2	0.44	2	16%	2
PHI B. Brink	1.4	2	0.44	0	14%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	0	0.34	0	8%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.3	0	0.24	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.28	1	5%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.33	0	13%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	4	0.40	0	15%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	1	0.26	1	11%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	1	0.27	1	4%	1
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	0	0.38	0	16%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.0	0	0.24	0	12%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	2	0.27	0	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.9	1	0.32	1	7%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	0.9	0	0.27	1	6%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.7	0	0.17	0	5%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.