Game Recap: NJD 3, PHI 1, March 9, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD3

FinalSun, Mar 9, 2025Every game that night

PHI1

NJD beat PHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.09 expected goals to 1.47. E. Haula led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Noesen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Allen stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	1	3
PHI	0	0	1	1

1st 11:10NJDC. Glass0.13 xG
2nd 5:39NJDE. Haula0.19 xG
3rd 15:14PHIJ. Drysdale0.16 xG
3rd 19:42NJDD. MercerEN0.41 xG

Team Stats

NJDPHI

23Shots on goal24

3.09Expected goals1.47

49Shot attempts56

225v5 shots on goal23

1/1Power play0/1

21Hits28

14Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes2

24Giveaways11

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.09 xGPHI 1.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD23 on goal, 3 scored

PHI24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Haula	LW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	14:29	0:04
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:20	0:04
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	2	16:12	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	15:28	0:04
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+2	0	12:21	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:39	1:08
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	4	2	3	0	0	18:00	1:08
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:53	1:08
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:21	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:58	0:00
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	11:24	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:39	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	23:35	1:08
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	21:39	0:39
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	18:09	0:04
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	25:16	0:33
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:10	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	23:25	1:11
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	23:22	1:13
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	19:07	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	18:01	1:18
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:22	0:47
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:39	0:44
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:30	0:42
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	13:50	1:16
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:00	0:49
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:32	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:34	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	7:29	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	23:23	1:02
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	22:52	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	20:53	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	19:07	0:58
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	6	3	-1	0	16:53	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	22	20	2	.909	59:48	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.1, PHI 2.6	NJD 3, PHI 1
Total goals	5.7	4
Shots on goal	NJD 26.1, PHI 26.6	NJD 23, PHI 24
Win chance	NJD 58%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	2.6	3	0.71	0	30%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	1	0.90	0	31%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	5	0.66	0	24%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	1	0.50	0	23%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	2	0.81	1	29%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.0	4	0.94	0	26%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	1	0.46	1	23%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.8	5	0.50	1	22%	0
NJD D. Sprong	1.7	3	0.50	0	20%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	3	0.42	0	14%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	1	0.46	0	19%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	1	0.67	1	12%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.7	1	0.39	1	14%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	2	0.28	0	5%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	1	0.40	0	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	1	0.49	1	23%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.45	0	16%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.4	1	0.33	2	15%	1
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	1	0.31	0	7%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.29	0	8%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	0	0.43	1	18%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.29	1	6%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	2	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.1	1	0.20	0	8%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.1	1	0.35	0	15%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.28	1	6%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
PHI R. Poehling	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.29	1	7%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	1	0.27	0	5%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.7	0	0.09	0	5%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.5	0	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.