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Game Recap
OTT4
CBJ1
OTT beat CBJ 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 2.20. R. Greig led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Reimer stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:34OTTT. Kleven0.05 xG
- 1st 7:46CBJS. Monahan0.14 xG
- 1st 10:15OTTT. Stützle0.09 xG
- 3rd 6:49OTTR. Greig0.26 xG
- 3rd 16:54OTTB. TkachukEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
OTTCBJ
21Shots on goal22
3.32Expected goals2.20
49Shot attempts49
145v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play0/3
15Hits27
14Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways19
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.32 xGCBJ 2.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 4:01 |
| R. Greig | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:44 | 2:03 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:11 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:30 | 0:04 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 3:54 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:08 | 3:59 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:32 | 2:03 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 3:48 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 1:38 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:10 | 2:16 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:24 | 3:57 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 59:29 | Win |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 3:48 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:21 | 1:44 |
| S. Monahan | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 1:43 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 4:16 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 4:20 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:19 | 4:01 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:00 | 0:03 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 10:29 | 1:59 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:12 | 4:14 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:30 | 1:46 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:52 | 1:40 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 7 | 5 | 2 | .714 | 20:00 | Loss |
| J. Greaves | 13 | 12 | 1 | .923 | 39:19 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 2F. Zetterlund10:57D. Batherson10:51T. Stützle12:08
Line 3D. Perron10:55N. Cousins10:32L. Eller9:45
Line 4D. Cozens10:54R. Greig10:19B. Tkachuk9:24
Pair 2J. Sanderson15:28A. Zub15:04
CBJ
Line 1A. Fantilli15:24C. Sillinger15:22K. Marchenko12:32
Line 2S. Monahan11:41K. Johnson13:37B. Jenner12:51
Line 3C. Coyle10:02M. Olivier11:21D. Voronkov7:49
Line 4B. Gaunce7:28Z. Aston-Reese6:51D. Heinen10:18
Pair 1E. Gudbranson16:32I. Provorov17:52
Pair 2D. Severson16:16Z. Werenski16:59
Pair 3J. Christiansen12:08E. Zamula11:07
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.4, CBJ 3.3 | OTT 4, CBJ 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 30.0, CBJ 28.2 | OTT 21, CBJ 22 |
| Win chance | OTT 51% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 2 | 1.07 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.7 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.7 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.4 | 2 | 0.94 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.4 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Gaunce | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Zamula | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.