Game Recap: OTT 5, PHI 2, March 11, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT5

FinalTue, Mar 11, 2025Every game that night

PHI2

OTT beat PHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 2.00. M. Amadio led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Forsberg stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	2	2	5
PHI	0	2	0	2

1st 0:24OTTB. Tkachuk0.04 xG
2nd 3:05PHIJ. Drysdale0.09 xG
2nd 4:14OTTT. Kleven0.01 xG
2nd 8:45PHIR. Abols0.12 xG
2nd 15:01OTTM. Amadio0.04 xG
3rd 10:59OTTD. Cozens0.10 xG
3rd 19:25OTTS. PintoEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

OTTPHI

24Shots on goal22

3.67Expected goals2.00

44Shot attempts61

215v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/2

29Hits24

22Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways18

4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.67 xGPHI 2.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT23 on goal, 5 scored

PHI22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Amadio	RW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	14:50	0:07
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	4	20:11	1:58
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	17:47	1:55
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:23	2:08
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:51	1:48
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:49	0:09
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	0	15:10	1:54
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	0	13:13	1:40
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	7:26	0:05
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:19	1:54
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	10:28	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:55	1:57
J. Sanderson	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+2	0	23:03	2:16
T. Kleven	D	1	0	1	3	7	2	+1	0	14:55	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	7	0	0	22:05	1:46
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	21:30	0:16
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	20:58	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:07	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	22:10	2:48
O. Lycksell	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:11	1:33
J. Pelletier	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	6:28	0:00
R. Abols	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	5:08	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	21:57	2:42
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	21:13	2:27
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	20:16	1:35
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	19:02	2:24
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:54	1:19
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:23	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	0	14:33	1:02
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	6:49	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	2	21:31	1:26
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-2	0	20:35	0:10
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:10	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	18:02	2:34
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	16:52	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	23	19	4	.826	56:57	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Ersson OTT Faces PHI, his team until May 20260 saves on 0
BirthdayTravis Konecny PHI Turns 28 that day1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.8, PHI 3.0	OTT 5, PHI 2
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	OTT 26.3, PHI 29.5	OTT 24, PHI 22
Win chance	PHI 54%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	4	0.81	1	32%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.6	0	0.98	1	33%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	1	0.59	0	26%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.6	1	0.74	0	26%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	1	0.62	2	10%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	1	0.95	1	28%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.1	3	0.57	0	27%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.0	0	0.50	0	16%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	3	0.53	0	12%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	1	0.69	1	23%	0
OTT D. Cozens	1.9	4	0.53	1	20%	1
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	2	0.48	1	20%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.8	2	0.52	0	20%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.43	0	18%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	0	0.66	1	22%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	0	0.52	1	21%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	3	0.30	0	5%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	0	0.52	0	18%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	2	0.42	0	9%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	2	0.42	0	18%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	2	0.40	2	19%	1
PHI O. Lycksell	1.3	0	0.24	1	9%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	0	0.31	1	8%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	2	0.33	1	7%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	2	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.2	2	0.33	0	14%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	2	0.23	0	5%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	1	0.23	1	11%	1
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	0	0.05	0	3%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.1	0	0.25	1	13%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.29	0	7%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.1	0	0.27	1	11%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	0	0.27	0	5%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.9	1	0.20	0	8%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.7	1	0.10	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.7	3	0.09	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.