Game Recap: OTT 3, TOR 0, November 12, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT3

FinalTue, Nov 12, 2024Every game that night

TOR0

OTT beat TOR 3-0, with the chances close: 2.65 expected goals to 2.33. OTT outshot TOR 41 to 27. A. Zub led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. McMann had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Ullmark stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	2	0	3
TOR	0	0	0	0

1st 0:41OTTJ. Norris0.15 xG
2nd 3:12OTTT. Stützle0.32 xG
2nd 3:55OTTM. Amadio0.08 xG

Team Stats

OTTTOR

41Shots on goal27

2.65Expected goals2.33

67Shot attempts55

365v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/4

25Hits25

16Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways20

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.65 xGTOR 2.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT41 on goal, 3 scored

TOR27 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	0	21:22	0:54
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	19:14	3:11
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	19:11	1:44
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	6	2	0	+1	0	15:26	1:45
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	12:21	0:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	4	7	0	0	4	16:35	3:12
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	15:14	0:55
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	15:04	2:22
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	13:40	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:43	0:53
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	8:10	0:00
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:42	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+1	0	21:41	1:28
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	4	2	3	+1	0	22:20	0:55
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+2	0	22:31	3:11
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	21:15	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:05	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	5	0	0	-2	0	21:48	4:24
M. Marner	RW	1	2	1	-1	0	21:27	4:18
M. Knies	LW	1	2	2	-1	2	20:22	3:48
J. Tavares	C	4	4	0	-1	0	20:02	4:13
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	-2	0	17:04	2:33
B. McMann	C	6	1	0	-2	0	15:02	1:59
D. Kampf	C	0	1	2	0	0	14:20	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	2	5	1	0	0	12:36	0:01
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	0	0	11:00	2:15
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	2	10:43	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	1	4	0	0	0	9:12	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	3	2	0	0	8:31	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	-2	0	22:10	4:22
J. McCabe	D	0	3	0	-1	0	20:19	0:13
C. Timmins	D	1	0	0	0	2	19:45	2:10
C. Tanev	D	1	0	1	0	0	17:39	0:01
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	2	0	1	-3	2	17:32	2:53
S. Benoit	D	0	0	1	0	0	16:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	41	38	3	.927	56:27	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayShane Pinto OTT Turns 24 that day2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, TOR 3.6	OTT 3, TOR 0
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	OTT 29.2, TOR 30.4	OTT 41, TOR 27
Win chance	TOR 59%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	4	0.88	0	32%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.4	5	1.09	0	38%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	4	0.85	0	32%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.3	1	1.24	0	32%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	6	0.74	1	25%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	2	0.51	0	20%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	4	0.89	1	26%	1
OTT J. Norris	2.1	1	0.65	1	30%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.1	6	0.41	0	21%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	4	0.51	1	11%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	1	0.64	0	26%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.0	4	0.74	1	25%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	1	0.62	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.77	0	11%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.7	3	0.43	0	7%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.7	3	0.24	0	12%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.35	0	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	2	0.45	0	9%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.5	1	0.30	0	14%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	2	0.38	1	19%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.4	0	0.35	0	16%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	2	0.23	0	9%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.2	1	0.16	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	1	0.26	0	4%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.1	0	0.27	0	10%	0
TOR C. Dewar	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	2	0.22	0	12%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	0	0.28	0	12%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	1.0	0	0.15	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.42	0	8%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.13	0	2%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	2	0.21	2	5%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.8	1	0.45	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.26	0	4%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.6	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.