VGK beat OTT 6-4, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.40. OTT outshot VGK 39 to 28. A. Pietrangelo led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. Cousins had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Hill stopped 35 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| VGK | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 2:40OTTA. Gaudette0.08 xG
- 1st 12:15OTTC. Giroux0.08 xG
- 1st 17:23VGKN. Roy0.15 xG
- 1st 17:44VGKN. Hague0.01 xG
- 1st 18:34OTTD. Batherson0.18 xG
- 2nd 6:40VGKI. Barbashev0.08 xG
- 2nd 17:44OTTA. GaudettePP0.17 xG
- 3rd 16:49VGKT. HertlPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 17:49VGKK. Kolesar0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:14VGKI. BarbashevEN0.83 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.40 xGVGK 2.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 2:12 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:10 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 1:19 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:07 | 2:50 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:18 | 2:04 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:40 | 2:34 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:57 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:46 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:25 | 0:14 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:31 | 0:14 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 25:33 | 2:30 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:41 | 1:05 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 58:14 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 | 3:37 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 3:37 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:17 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 3:37 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:17 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:17 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 3:37 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Brisson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 23:39 | 0:17 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 23:47 | 1:21 |
| N. Hague | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:15 | 2:33 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 39 | 35 | 4 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.9, VGK 3.5 | OTT 4, VGK 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 29.7, VGK 29.8 | OTT 39, VGK 28 |
| Win chance | VGK 59% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.7 | 2 | 1.11 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.72 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.2 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 1 | 0.96 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.0 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.0 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 4 | 0.60 | 3 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.4 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.3 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK B. Brisson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 2 | 7% | 2 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.8 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.