Game Recap: PHI 5, CBJ 3, December 10, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI5

FinalTue, Dec 10, 2024Every game that night

CBJ3

PHI beat CBJ 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 2.91 expected goals to 1.53. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Foerster had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. S. Ersson stopped 15 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	2	2	1	5
CBJ	0	1	2	3

1st 4:37PHIN. Cates0.42 xG
1st 10:56PHIO. Tippett0.01 xG
2nd 6:11PHIT. KonecnyPP0.05 xG
2nd 16:56CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.07 xG
2nd 19:00PHIT. Konecny0.16 xG
3rd 1:55PHIM. Frost0.01 xG
3rd 11:42CBJS. Monahan0.10 xG
3rd 19:23CBJK. Johnson0.07 xG

Team Stats

PHICBJ

25Shots on goal18

2.91Expected goals1.53

58Shot attempts43

235v5 shots on goal13

1/3Power play1/2

18Hits26

16Blocked shots17

9Penalty minutes11

20Giveaways7

1Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.91 xGCBJ 1.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ16 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	0	2	19:42	3:02
M. Michkov	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	0	14:39	2:50
M. Frost	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	14:31	2:45
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:20	2:35
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	16:50	2:40
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	14:41	2:59
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	13:05	2:40
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:46	3:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:49	0:00
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:02	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	23:03	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+3	0	18:28	3:04
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+3	5	12:38	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	21:35	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	21:28	2:35
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	17:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	18	15	3	.833	60:00	Win
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:41	3:04
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:06	3:02
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-2	0	17:45	3:04
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:06	0:13
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-2	0	18:02	3:05
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:57	0:15
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	16:05	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:44	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	7	13:38	0:15
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	9:38	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	8:04	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:25	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	24:40	3:06
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	22:01	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	21:18	0:14
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:05	0:17
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	13:52	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	13:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	25	20	5	.800	60:00	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIvan Provorov CBJ Faces PHI, his team until Apr 20233 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.1, CBJ 3.3	PHI 5, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	PHI 30.6, CBJ 29.5	PHI 25, CBJ 18
Win chance	CBJ 53%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI T. Konecny	3.1	3	1.09	2	37%	2
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	2	0.99	1	18%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	2	0.60	1	26%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.5	1	0.61	0	20%	0
PHI J. Farabee	2.3	0	0.59	1	23%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.3	2	0.70	1	29%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	2	0.77	1	25%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	2.1	1	0.55	0	12%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.0	1	0.58	0	21%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	2	0.60	0	26%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.9	1	0.49	0	16%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.9	1	0.68	2	24%	1
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	3	0.87	2	27%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.6	4	0.51	2	17%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.6	0	0.34	1	6%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.6	5	0.40	1	21%	0
PHI C. York	1.6	1	0.38	1	10%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.5	0	0.41	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	1	0.56	1	14%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	0	0.28	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.4	0	0.33	1	7%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.43	1	16%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	1	0.41	1	15%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	1	0.30	0	14%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.4	1	0.30	0	13%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.24	1	4%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	1	0.36	0	15%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.2	1	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	3	0.39	0	8%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.1	2	0.35	1	13%	1
CBJ K. Labanc	1.1	0	0.33	0	12%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	0	0.27	0	13%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.5	0	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.