Game Recap: PHI 2, CBJ 3 (SO), January 14, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI2

Final/SOTue, Jan 14, 2025Every game that night

CBJ3

CBJ beat PHI 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.34 expected goals to 2.24. Z. Werenski led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Severson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. D. Tarasov stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	1	0	1	0	2
CBJ	1	0	1	1	3

1st 3:44PHIB. Brink0.10 xG
1st 10:27CBJZ. Werenski0.20 xG
3rd 8:13PHIO. Tippett0.02 xG
3rd 15:23CBJZ. Werenski0.17 xG

Team Stats

PHICBJ

25Shots on goal28

2.24Expected goals2.34

59Shot attempts52

215v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/1

24Hits13

14Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways15

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.24 xGCBJ 2.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0	20:05	2:16
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	18:28	2:15
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:50	1:33
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	19:05	2:09
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:03	1:27
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:45	1:31
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:08	0:16
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	9	1	0	0	15:06	0:16
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:55	0:18
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:12	2:14
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:24	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:10	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:07	2:41
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	17:30	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	25:18	1:28
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:11	1:30
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	21:44	0:06
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	28	26	2	.929	65:00	OT loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:11	1:17
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	19:18	1:17
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:01	0:43
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	18:05	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	16:47	1:17
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	2	16:41	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:27	1:17
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:07	0:43
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:49	0:43
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	11:56	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:08	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:38	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	2	0	2	5	0	0	+1	0	31:30	1:17
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:25	0:43
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	23:05	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:12	0:43
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	17:33	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	25	23	2	.920	65:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIvan Provorov CBJ Faces PHI, his team until Apr 20230 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.0, CBJ 3.4	PHI 2, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	PHI 29.5, CBJ 28.2	PHI 25, CBJ 28
Win chance	CBJ 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	5	1.12	2	20%	2
PHI O. Tippett	3.0	4	0.67	1	28%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	4	0.92	1	34%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.5	1	0.96	0	33%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.4	4	0.86	0	35%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.2	0	0.53	0	19%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	3	0.66	0	23%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.9	2	0.59	1	23%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	1	0.49	0	24%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.8	2	0.56	1	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	4	0.45	0	10%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.7	2	0.48	0	17%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	2	0.66	0	23%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	1	0.27	0	4%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	1	0.38	0	13%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	1	0.50	0	18%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.47	1	15%	1
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.49	0	18%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.35	0	7%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	0	0.31	0	15%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.34	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.42	0	17%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.3	0	0.25	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	3	0.29	1	5%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.2	0	0.36	0	14%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.2	0	0.29	0	12%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	0	0.48	0	9%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.20	1	4%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	2	0.32	0	15%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.0	0	0.31	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.0	5	0.40	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.36	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.9	0	0.32	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	2	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.