Game Recap: PHI 3, CGY 6, October 12, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalSat, Oct 12, 2024Every game that night

CGY6

CGY beat PHI 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.26 expected goals to 2.88. PHI outshot CGY 40 to 32. J. Huberdeau led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Farabee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. D. Wolf stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	2	1	3
CGY	2	1	3	6

1st 5:37CGYJ. Huberdeau0.25 xG
1st 7:43CGYM. WeegarPP0.10 xG
2nd 7:05PHIT. KonecnySH0.14 xG
2nd 14:41CGYN. KadriPP0.11 xG
2nd 18:11PHIJ. Farabee0.19 xG
3rd 14:46CGYM. Backlund0.18 xG
3rd 15:34CGYJ. Huberdeau0.27 xG
3rd 17:11PHIT. KonecnyPP0.17 xG
3rd 18:16CGYN. KadriEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

PHICGY

40Shots on goal32

2.88Expected goals4.26

70Shot attempts60

285v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play2/5

28Hits29

17Blocked shots15

27Penalty minutes15

12Giveaways21

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.88 xGCGY 4.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI39 on goal, 3 scored

CGY30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	2	0	2	5	2	1	-1	2	21:13	4:05
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	-2	0	18:48	4:03
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	18:36	4:07
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	13:32	2:14
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	0	13:25	2:15
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:04	0:25
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	9	0	-1	0	20:14	4:04
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	17	14:06	2:28
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	4	13:27	1:54
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:28	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	10:04	0:00
E. Johnson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	11:43	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	24:39	0:01
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	2	22:05	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	18:58	3:59
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-2	0	18:54	2:23
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:37	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	31	26	5	.839	58:36	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	2	2	4	2	0	0	0	0	18:07	5:03
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	3	3	1	0	1	+1	0	17:12	4:47
N. Kadri	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	19:03	4:45
M. Pospisil	C	0	2	2	0	4	0	+2	5	9:09	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	0	20:13	2:53
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	2	19:03	2:49
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	2	18:46	4:09
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:07	2:39
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	12:43	2:11
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	2	10:45	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:33	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	1	2	1	4	1	+2	0	23:21	4:53
J. Bean	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	14:38	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	21:54	2:49
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:22	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:51	0:58
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	15:29	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	40	37	3	.925	59:03	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDan Vladar PHI Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20250 saves on 0
Old teamJoel Farabee CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20251 G, 6 SOG
Old teamMorgan Frost CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20251 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.9, CGY 3.4	PHI 3, CGY 6
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	PHI 29.9, CGY 29.4	PHI 40, CGY 32
Win chance	CGY 58%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.6	3	1.06	2	32%	2
PHI O. Tippett	3.4	2	0.62	0	25%	0
PHI T. Konecny	3.2	5	0.86	2	30%	2
CGY M. Weegar	2.6	1	0.67	2	15%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	4	0.62	1	21%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.5	6	0.67	1	27%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.3	4	0.49	0	23%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.1	0	0.39	1	13%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	2.0	0	0.52	2	17%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	2	0.87	4	22%	2
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.9	1	0.90	3	34%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	0	0.60	0	11%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.8	4	0.51	1	16%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.8	1	0.37	0	10%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.8	6	0.45	1	17%	1
PHI S. Laughton	1.7	2	0.42	1	14%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.7	0	0.40	0	16%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	3	0.41	0	9%	0
CGY A. Mantha	1.6	3	0.61	1	23%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.6	2	0.61	1	22%	0
PHI C. York	1.5	3	0.37	0	9%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.5	3	0.31	0	14%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.4	1	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	3	0.34	1	13%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	1	0.26	0	5%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.1	1	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI E. Johnson	1.0	1	0.14	1	5%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	2	0.29	1	7%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.9	1	0.29	0	5%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.15	0	10%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.8	2	0.21	0	10%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.7	0	0.12	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.