Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
PHI2
DAL3
DAL beat PHI 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.63 expected goals to 2.28. T. Harley led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Foerster had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 6:27DALT. Harley0.02 xG
- 1st 8:59DALE. Lindell0.08 xG
- 2nd 13:03PHIT. Konecny0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:48PHIR. Poehling0.25 xG
- OT 0:09DALT. Harley0.20 xG
Team Stats
PHIDAL
24Shots on goal19
2.28Expected goals1.63
55Shot attempts51
215v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play0/4
19Hits16
20Blocked shots16
10Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways27
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.28 xGDAL 1.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 4:09 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 4:27 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 19:47 | 2:29 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 2:25 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 1:01 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:50 |
| O. Lycksell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:57 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:31 | 1:06 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:05 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:45 | 1:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | 2:40 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 4:16 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 20:00 | |
| S. Ersson | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 40:09 | OT loss |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:26 | 4:47 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 3:15 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 2:58 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 4:46 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 4:03 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 4:33 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 2:49 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:23 | 2:30 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:11 | 5:29 |
| E. Lindell | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:10 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:19 | 2:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:09 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.6, DAL 3.4 | PHI 2, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 26.8, DAL 26.8 | PHI 24, DAL 19 |
| Win chance | DAL 64% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 0 | 1.09 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.4 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 3 | 1.07 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 6 | 0.76 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 6 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 0 | 0.90 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.5 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI O. Lycksell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.