Game Recap: PHI 3, NJD 1, January 18, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalSat, Jan 18, 2025Every game that night

NJD1

PHI beat NJD 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.80 expected goals to 1.53. N. Cates led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Ersson stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	1	2	3
NJD	1	0	0	1

1st 2:17NJDD. Hamilton0.02 xG
2nd 1:56PHIM. Michkov0.18 xG
3rd 12:44PHIB. BrinkPP0.14 xG
3rd 19:58PHIT. KonecnyEN0.71 xG

Team Stats

PHINJD

18Shots on goal13

2.80Expected goals1.53

59Shot attempts64

155v5 shots on goal9

1/2Power play0/2

10Hits18

33Blocked shots25

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways21

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.80 xGNJD 1.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI18 on goal, 3 scored

NJD13 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	0	2	2	2	0	3	+1	0	17:24	1:28
T. Foerster	RW	0	2	2	0	0	2	+1	0	16:36	1:26
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	2	18:55	0:49
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:44	1:27
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:38	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:58	0:49
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:54	0:49
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:41	0:49
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	14:21	0:12
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:25	0:11
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:04	0:10
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	8:45	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	+1	0	23:37	1:35
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	21:22	1:27
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:22	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	+1	0	18:59	0:03
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:53	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	2	16:22	1:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	13	12	1	.923	60:00	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Bastian	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	12:00	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:00	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:31	2:32
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	19:33	2:36
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:03	2:58
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:43	2:43
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	17:28	1:21
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:08	1:26
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:48	0:45
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	6	1	-1	0	14:08	1:14
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:35	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:48	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	22:05	2:44
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:35	0:24
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	-1	2	19:54	1:17
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	18:06	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	16:59	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	17	15	2	.882	57:26	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayTyson Foerster PHI Turns 23 that day2 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, NJD 3.2	PHI 3, NJD 1
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	PHI 26.3, NJD 27.6	PHI 18, NJD 13
Win chance	NJD 59%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	1	1.33	0	40%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.9	1	0.84	0	35%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	0	0.61	0	27%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	0	1.01	0	34%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	1	1.14	0	32%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.3	2	0.67	1	15%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	1	0.83	1	30%	1
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	1	0.68	0	27%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.8	1	0.53	0	19%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	1	0.55	1	20%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	2	0.44	0	10%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.7	0	0.44	0	16%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.6	3	0.38	0	16%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	2	0.53	0	24%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.6	0	0.40	2	21%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	1	0.61	0	10%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	2	0.45	2	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	0	0.54	0	21%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	0	0.25	0	4%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.3	1	0.32	1	11%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	0	0.30	0	7%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	2	0.40	1	14%	1
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.33	0	8%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	2	0.37	0	18%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	2	0.28	0	5%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.1	0	0.21	0	8%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	1	0.31	0	7%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	1	0.24	1	11%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.8	0	0.28	1	12%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	0	0.29	0	6%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.21	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	0	0.26	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.