Game Recap: PHI 3, OTT 4 (OT), April 13, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/OTSun, Apr 13, 2025Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat PHI 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.00 expected goals to 3.70. T. Stützle led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Deslauriers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. A. Forsberg stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	0	2	1	0	3
OTT	0	1	2	1	4

2nd 11:43PHIN. Deslauriers0.73 xG
2nd 12:36OTTT. Stützle0.24 xG
2nd 17:17PHIN. Cates0.07 xG
3rd 4:41OTTF. Zetterlund0.16 xG
3rd 7:33PHIG. Hathaway0.03 xG
3rd 12:54OTTT. Chabot0.07 xG
OT 1:40OTTT. StützlePP0.10 xG

Team Stats

PHIOTT

32Shots on goal25

3.70Expected goals2.00

54Shot attempts67

275v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play1/3

28Hits29

23Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways7

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.70 xGOTT 2.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI32 on goal, 3 scored

OTT25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Hathaway	RW	1	1	2	1	4	3	+1	0	12:35	0:08
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	17:16	1:31
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:22	2:47
N. Deslauriers	LW	1	0	1	5	3	1	+1	0	11:21	0:08
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	17:31	2:11
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:26	1:14
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:48	1:22
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	2	16:20	1:51
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	2	15:50	2:34
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	15:42	2:04
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:28	0:55
K. Dorwart	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:15	0:20
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	23:32	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	0	0	22:55	0:14
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	13:22	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	23:22	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	20:23	0:54
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:32	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	25	21	4	.840	61:40	OT loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	2	1	3	2	2	1	+2	0	20:30	3:32
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	19:28	3:27
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	19:23	1:35
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	-2	0	17:19	3:30
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	14:41	1:33
A. Crookshank	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	11:25	0:00
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:08	2:08
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	2	14:47	1:30
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:28	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:18	1:32
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	9:54	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	20:17	1:36
T. Hamonic	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:54	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	24:37	3:26
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:34	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	3	3	4	0	0	18:39	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	18:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	32	29	3	.906	61:40	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Ersson OTT Faces PHI, his team until May 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, OTT 3.5	PHI 3, OTT 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	PHI 26.8, OTT 28.6	PHI 32, OTT 25
Win chance	OTT 62%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI M. Michkov	2.9	4	0.76	0	25%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.3	4	0.54	0	17%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	5	0.73	0	13%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	3	0.78	0	27%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	2	0.84	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	1	0.69	0	24%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.2	3	0.46	0	20%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	2	0.66	3	14%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.0	3	0.52	1	21%	1
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	1	0.51	0	25%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.9	2	0.95	3	27%	2
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	0	0.60	1	25%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	0	0.37	0	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	3	0.43	1	16%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	1	0.67	1	22%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.4	0	0.25	1	4%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.4	2	0.42	0	16%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	1	0.45	1	15%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.22	1	6%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.48	0	21%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.2	1	0.31	0	12%	0
OTT A. Crookshank	1.2	0	0.21	1	11%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	2	0.29	0	11%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.2	1	0.23	2	11%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.34	0	7%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.0	0	0.28	0	15%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	1.0	2	0.33	0	12%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	0	0.23	1	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	0	0.18	0	6%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.9	2	0.12	1	3%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	5	0.09	1	6%	1
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	0	0.23	0	5%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.4	3	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.