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Game Recap
PHI0
TBL2
TBL beat PHI 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.38 expected goals to 2.06. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 21 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 18:31TBLN. Kucherov0.26 xG
- 3rd 18:30TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.40 xG
Team Stats
PHITBL
21Shots on goal23
2.06Expected goals3.38
49Shot attempts53
155v5 shots on goal18
0/5Power play1/4
41Hits19
10Blocked shots19
8Penalty minutes12
10Giveaways17
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.06 xGTBL 3.38 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 4:56 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 2:58 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 5:30 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:49 | 2:31 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:15 | 5:25 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:14 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 6:29 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:37 |
| O. Lycksell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 2:10 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:46 | 0:14 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:45 | 0:33 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:49 | 0:25 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:27 | 4:36 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 3:12 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 59:38 | Loss |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:37 | 3:57 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:53 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:41 | 2:53 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:17 | 1:05 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:18 | 0:14 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:56 | 0:50 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:48 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 1:21 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:18 | 3:06 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:51 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 1:47 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 21 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:59 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.7, TBL 3.7 | PHI 0, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 26.9, TBL 27.9 | PHI 21, TBL 23 |
| Win chance | TBL 66% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.6 | 3 | 1.43 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 5 | 1.06 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.3 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 1 | 1.06 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.9 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI O. Lycksell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.