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Game Recap
PHI3
VAN2
PHI beat VAN 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.79 expected goals to 2.25. S. Ersson stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 12:55VANN. Hoglander0.11 xG
- 1st 17:24PHIT. FoersterPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 11:25VANT. Blueger0.06 xG
- 3rd 2:48PHIC. York0.31 xG
Team Stats
PHIVAN
31Shots on goal26
2.79Expected goals2.25
51Shot attempts67
195v5 shots on goal15
1/4Power play0/5
21Hits29
20Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways10
7Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.79 xGVAN 2.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 3:43 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 3:35 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:12 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:24 | 3:41 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:10 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 3:26 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:32 | 3:31 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 3:28 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 3:37 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Luchanko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 3:43 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:19 | 0:07 |
| C. York | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:47 | 0:04 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:18 | 0:18 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:31 | 4:25 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:55 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 65:00 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 4:20 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:11 |
| T. Blueger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:13 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:14 | 2:24 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 | 6:47 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 6:26 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 6:31 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 3:18 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 4:46 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:10 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:17 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:11 | 1:45 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31:29 | 8:02 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25:53 | 1:36 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:28 | 0:44 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.8, VAN 3.1 | PHI 3, VAN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 29.1, VAN 24.4 | PHI 31, VAN 26 |
| Win chance | VAN 55% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.0 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.6 | 1 | 1.30 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.5 | 2 | 0.96 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.5 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.5 | 1 | 1.13 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.5 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.2 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.1 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN D. Sprong | 1.8 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.