Game Recap: PHI 2, WPG 1 (SO), March 1, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI2

Final/SOSat, Mar 1, 2025Every game that night

WPG1

PHI beat WPG 2-1 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.28 expected goals to 3.15. R. Ristolainen had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. I. Fedotov stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	0	1	0	1	2
WPG	1	0	0	0	1

1st 9:58WPGM. Scheifele0.25 xG
2nd 3:48PHIJ. Drysdale0.16 xG

Team Stats

PHIWPG

32Shots on goal30

2.28Expected goals3.15

60Shot attempts73

285v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/2

28Hits29

22Blocked shots12

9Penalty minutes7

19Giveaways18

2Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.28 xGWPG 3.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI31 on goal, 1 scored

WPG30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	20:05	0:40
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	4	3	2	0	0	22:34	1:17
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:19	1:00
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	18:35	0:54
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	17:22	0:41
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:14	1:14
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:03	1:13
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:06	0:37
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:32	0:06
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:09	0:06
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	6:18	0:06
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	5:59	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	20:44	0:48
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	+1	0	17:17	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	27:47	0:06
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	21:13	0:06
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	7	3	1	0	2	19:46	1:06
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	16:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	30	29	1	.967	65:00	Win
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	23:05	2:43
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	22:51	2:38
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	20:29	2:39
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:31	1:17
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	17:31	2:38
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	16:48	1:22
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:21	1:21
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:08	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	15:38	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:58	1:22
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8:39	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:39	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	6	0	1	+1	0	27:37	2:46
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	22:47	1:14
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:24	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	21:15	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:10	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	13:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	32	31	1	.969	65:00	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.3, WPG 3.3	PHI 2, WPG 1
Total goals	5.6	3
Shots on goal	PHI 25.9, WPG 26.9	PHI 32, WPG 30
Win chance	WPG 66%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	2	1.18	1	41%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.6	4	0.91	0	29%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	4	0.76	0	27%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	1	0.45	0	20%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	3	0.57	0	20%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	6	0.93	0	17%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	4	1.06	1	37%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	0	0.86	1	34%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.9	1	0.43	0	16%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	1	0.43	0	22%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	0	0.45	0	21%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	2	0.37	0	12%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	3	0.59	0	11%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	2	0.60	0	20%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	1	0.34	0	7%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	3	0.42	1	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	3	0.43	0	15%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	7	0.23	0	4%	0
PHI A. Kuzmenko	1.4	3	0.52	0	23%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	1	0.37	0	7%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.3	3	0.36	0	14%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	1	0.54	0	17%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	0	0.26	0	7%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.43	0	17%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.3	1	0.29	0	11%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	1	0.17	1	3%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	1	0.23	1	4%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.0	0	0.29	0	12%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.38	0	6%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	1	0.19	0	8%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	0	0.26	0	5%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.6	0	0.07	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.