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Game Recap
PHI3
WSH6
WSH beat PHI 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.43. P. Dubois led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Frost had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Thompson stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| WSH | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 4:50WSHT. Raddysh0.07 xG
- 2nd 2:49WSHN. Dowd0.06 xG
- 2nd 4:04WSHC. McMichael0.19 xG
- 2nd 7:16WSHC. McMichael0.06 xG
- 2nd 12:04PHIT. KonecnyPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 16:16PHIO. Tippett0.01 xG
- 3rd 6:36PHIM. MichkovPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 17:48WSHP. DuboisEN0.73 xG
- 3rd 18:50WSHA. OvechkinEN0.52 xG
Team Stats
PHIWSH
29Shots on goal25
2.43Expected goals3.52
56Shot attempts51
225v5 shots on goal18
2/4Power play0/3
32Hits16
11Blocked shots20
8Penalty minutes10
18Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.43 xGWSH 3.52 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 21:03 | 4:42 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:18 | 4:43 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 21:26 | 4:24 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:51 | 0:47 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 19:25 | 3:58 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:46 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:37 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:06 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:05 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:40 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:23 | 4:19 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:03 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:13 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:13 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 58:24 | Loss |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 18:12 | 3:59 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:34 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 5:51 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 4:11 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:17 | 0:15 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:09 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 2 | 20:07 | 3:40 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:13 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 2:07 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 1:46 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +4 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:15 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 26:34 | 4:18 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 1:42 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.9, WSH 3.0 | PHI 3, WSH 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 29.9, WSH 25.1 | PHI 29, WSH 25 |
| Win chance | WSH 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.8 | 5 | 0.84 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 0 | 0.96 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.9 | 7 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.9 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 4 | 0.66 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 1.0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.6 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.