Game Recap: PHI 2, WSH 3, March 20, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI2

FinalThu, Mar 20, 2025Every game that night

WSH3

WSH beat PHI 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.53 expected goals to 3.72. PHI outshot WSH 28 to 16. R. Poehling led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Couturier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Lindgren stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	0	2	2
WSH	1	2	0	3

1st 14:25WSHA. Ovechkin0.04 xG
2nd 1:56WSHB. Duhaime0.09 xG
2nd 11:06WSHA. Mangiapane0.20 xG
3rd 5:10PHIR. Poehling0.22 xG
3rd 17:24PHIS. Couturier0.70 xG

Team Stats

PHIWSH

28Shots on goal16

3.72Expected goals1.53

65Shot attempts36

215v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play0/1

18Hits13

13Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways20

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.72 xGWSH 1.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI29 on goal, 2 scored

WSH16 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Poehling	C	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	0	16:14	0:03
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	22:24	1:46
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:02	1:44
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	22:18	1:57
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:01	1:58
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:42	1:56
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	2	18:11	1:46
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:03	1:45
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:45	1:56
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	9:21	0:03
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:29	0:03
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:10	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	22:31	1:53
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	21:52	0:03
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:00	0:06
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:21	1:46
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	16:25	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	0	15:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	16	13	3	.813	56:36	Loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	2	2	0	2	0	+2	0	15:34	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	15:36	1:33
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:30	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	14:55	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:22	0:27
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:04	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	16:45	1:18
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:08	1:18
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:01	1:18
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:30	0:27
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:15	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:48	0:27
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	20:58	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	17:00	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	21:53	0:38
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	21:19	0:02
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:34	1:17
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	17:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	28	27	2	.964	60:00	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.5, WSH 3.4	PHI 2, WSH 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	PHI 25.4, WSH 26.6	PHI 28, WSH 16
Win chance	WSH 65%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.9	4	0.92	1	38%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	2	0.62	0	22%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	3	0.49	1	22%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	2	0.80	0	28%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.2	0	0.65	0	19%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	5	0.46	1	15%	1
WSH T. Wilson	1.9	1	0.74	0	29%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	1	0.47	0	23%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	1	0.60	0	24%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.7	2	0.70	0	13%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	0	0.77	0	25%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.7	1	0.72	1	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.6	0	0.89	0	27%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	2	0.44	0	17%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.6	0	0.35	2	15%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	0	0.47	0	16%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	0	0.35	0	9%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.2	1	0.32	0	14%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.39	1	7%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.2	2	0.31	2	13%	1
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.35	0	13%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	2	0.28	0	8%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	2	0.29	0	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	2	0.18	0	4%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.41	1	17%	1
PHI O. Lycksell	1.0	1	0.26	0	8%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.0	1	0.16	0	4%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	1	0.24	1	11%	1
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	0	0.37	0	17%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.32	0	8%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	1	0.42	0	8%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.9	0	0.27	1	4%	0
PHI R. Abols	0.8	2	0.17	0	9%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	0.8	1	0.20	0	7%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.6	0	0.08	0	4%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.22	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.