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Game Recap
PHI2
FinalWed, Oct 28, 2026Every game that night
WSH5

WSH beat PHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.44 expected goals to 2.37. D. Strome led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Tuch had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. L. Thompson stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PHI0112
WSH1225
  1. 1st 1:50WSHA. Tuch0.20 xG
  2. 2nd 4:36PHIS. Couturier0.09 xG
  3. 2nd 7:14WSHJ. KyrouPP0.15 xG
  4. 2nd 16:47WSHA. Protas0.08 xG
  5. 3rd 9:44PHIM. MichkovPP0.29 xG
  6. 3rd 12:51WSHJ. Kyrou0.34 xG
  7. 3rd 17:36WSHA. TuchEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

PHIWSH
25Shots on goal30
2.37Expected goals4.44
61Shot attempts61
215v5 shots on goal25
1/4Power play1/3
23Hits32
14Blocked shots25
8Penalty minutes10
19Giveaways10
2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.37 xGWSH 4.44 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdWSH goal, 1:50PHI goal, 4:36WSH goal, 7:14WSH goal, 16:47PHI goal, 9:44WSH goal, 12:51WSH goal, 17:36

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 2 scored
WSH30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ZegrasC011402-1219:094:21
S. CouturierC101330+1018:171:17
M. MichkovRW101100-2017:065:17
D. BarkeyC011100-2014:424:23
T. FoersterRW0001210019:192:46
C. DvorakC000100-1017:200:55
C. KnubleRW000201-2015:270:58
A. BumpLW000331-1014:471:34
P. MartoneRW000220-2214:323:05
N. CatesLW000130-1012:580:15
N. AcciariC0000100010:250:00
J. GaucherC000010048:550:00
N. SeelerD011210-1017:190:00
J. DrysdaleD000112-1023:264:33
T. SanheimD000013-2020:581:35
O. BonkD0001020018:221:02
C. YorkD000102-1018:020:01
H. McDonaldD0001500016:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll29254.86258:09Loss
D. Vladar000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. StromeC033201+1015:482:34
A. TuchRW202510+3018:411:39
J. KyrouRW202311+1015:342:32
P. DuboisC022110+2213:001:40
A. ProtasLW101310+2016:540:00
B. JennerC0000320017:010:00
T. WilsonRW000130+1016:442:31
J. SourdifC0001200015:040:00
R. LeonardRW000423-1014:161:37
A. OvechkinLW0002110011:592:39
A. BeauvillierRW0002300211:270:00
I. ProtasLW0000120011:261:32
J. St. IvanyD022102+2014:440:00
J. ChychrunD011103+2022:082:40
M. RoyD011192+1420:370:00
M. FehérváryD000123-1022:390:00
C. HutsonD000111+2218:211:31
T. LiljegrenD0001140017:290:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson25232.92060:00Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak14:39C. Knuble14:00T. Zegras14:48
Line 2S. Couturier14:32T. Foerster16:04A. Bump12:44
Line 3N. Cates11:02M. Michkov11:20P. Martone11:27
Line 4J. Gaucher8:55D. Barkey9:50N. Acciari8:00
Pair 1J. Drysdale17:12T. Sanheim16:24
Pair 2H. McDonald16:36O. Bonk17:20
Pair 3N. Seeler15:37C. York15:30

WSH

Line 1B. Jenner13:52J. Sourdif15:04R. Leonard12:39
Line 2D. Strome13:14J. Kyrou13:02A. Tuch12:47
Line 3A. Protas13:30T. Wilson11:47P. Dubois10:51
Line 4A. Ovechkin9:20I. Protas9:54A. Beauvillier11:27
Pair 1M. Roy18:15J. Chychrun16:29
Pair 2C. Hutson16:50J. Ivany14:44
Pair 3M. Fehérváry18:09T. Liljegren14:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5+115-1502Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5+104-1255Over
WSH J. Chychrun2.5-114-1101Under
WSH J. Kyrou2.5+140-1703Over
PHI A. Bump1.5-110-1053Over
WSH A. Protas1.5-120-1053Over
WSH B. Jenner1.5-118+1000Under
PHI C. Dvorak1.5+120-1351Under
WSH C. Hutson1.5-125+1201Under
WSH D. Strome1.5-145+1152Over
PHI M. Michkov1.5-132+1251Under
WSH P. Dubois1.5-115+1051Under
PHI P. Martone1.5-130+1052Over
WSH R. Leonard1.5-188+1504Over
PHI T. Foerster1.5-120+1001Under
PHI T. Sanheim1.5+120-1500Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-170+1451Under
PHI T. Zegras1.5-140+1204Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.5, WSH 3.3PHI 2, WSH 5
Total goals5.97
Shots on goalPHI 24.0, WSH 27.9PHI 25, WSH 30
Win chanceWSH 63%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WSH J. Chychrun2.610.66121%0
WSH A. Tuch2.550.79232%2
WSH A. Ovechkin2.320.66028%0
WSH J. Kyrou2.130.64225%2
PHI M. Michkov2.110.67124%1
WSH R. Leonard2.140.56021%0
WSH T. Wilson2.010.73029%0
PHI T. Zegras1.940.71123%0
WSH B. Jenner1.900.48021%0
PHI P. Martone1.920.52018%0
WSH D. Strome1.920.80326%0
PHI T. Foerster1.810.43022%0
WSH A. Protas1.830.59122%1
PHI C. Dvorak1.610.53018%0
WSH C. Hutson1.610.4108%0
PHI A. Bump1.630.34015%0
WSH P. Dubois1.610.67222%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.510.38010%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.400.40011%0
PHI S. Couturier1.430.36112%1
WSH A. Beauvillier1.320.28013%0
PHI N. Cates1.310.39014%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.310.40016%0
PHI C. York1.210.2607%0
WSH I. Protas1.100.42012%0
PHI N. Acciari1.100.23011%0
PHI N. Seeler1.120.1915%0
PHI D. Barkey1.110.42114%0
WSH M. Roy1.110.2715%0
WSH T. Liljegren1.010.2406%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.910.3508%0
PHI O. Bonk0.910.3306%0
WSH J. Ivany0.710.1723%0
PHI H. McDonald0.610.1202%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.