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Game Recap
PIT3
FinalTue, Oct 14, 2025Every game that night
ANA4

ANA beat PIT 4-3, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 2.24. C. Kreider led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Dostal stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT2103
ANA2114
  1. 1st 1:03PITJ. Brazeau0.06 xG
  2. 1st 7:01PITR. Rakell0.05 xG
  3. 1st 9:42ANAC. KreiderPP0.10 xG
  4. 1st 19:25ANAC. Gauthier0.12 xG
  5. 2nd 9:48ANAD. Helleson0.02 xG
  6. 2nd 17:01PITA. Mantha0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 18:33ANAC. KreiderPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

PITANA
25Shots on goal22
2.24Expected goals2.70
51Shot attempts69
245v5 shots on goal14
0/1Power play2/6
16Hits25
26Blocked shots16
12Penalty minutes0
12Giveaways14
3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.24 xGANA 2.70 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdPIT goal, 1:03PIT goal, 7:01ANA goal, 9:42ANA goal, 19:25ANA goal, 9:48PIT goal, 17:01ANA goal, 18:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT23 on goal, 3 scored
ANA22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. CrosbyC022300+2217:111:34
B. RustRW011104+2020:321:17
R. RakellRW101211+1217:571:17
E. MalkinC0113100016:471:54
J. BrazeauRW1012130014:190:26
A. ManthaRW101100+1014:040:26
B. KindelC000200-1014:120:43
C. DewarC0001100013:060:00
P. TomasinoRW000204-1013:040:00
T. NovakC000202-1012:430:20
B. LizotteC0000000010:530:00
F. HallanderC0001000010:400:00
R. SheaD022203+2020:130:00
P. WotherspoonD0000220221:480:00
E. KarlssonD0001020221:401:17
K. LetangD0000110221:110:40
C. CliftonD0002840018:210:03
M. DumbaD0000100215:090:03
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry22184.81859:01Loss
A. Silovs000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KreiderLW213400-2015:136:00
L. CarlssonC022103-2014:585:52
M. GranlundC0112010019:575:33
T. TerryRW011300-1019:555:41
B. SenneckeRW011110+1018:571:17
C. GauthierLW101211+1018:311:14
M. McTavishC000001+1020:591:24
F. VatranoRW0000210014:120:00
R. JohnstonLW0000600011:090:00
N. NesterenkoC0000400010:370:00
R. PoehlingC0000000010:040:00
A. KillornLW000100-109:550:58
D. HellesonD101300+2017:120:33
P. MintyukovD011121+2015:230:12
J. LaCombeD000114-1026:065:52
R. GudasD000173-1020:020:00
O. ZellwegerD000200-2017:411:07
J. TroubaD000011-2017:090:02
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal25223.88060:00Win
P. Mrazek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:38B. Rust13:36R. Rakell12:20
Line 2E. Malkin13:50J. Brazeau13:33A. Mantha13:38
Line 3P. Tomasino13:04B. Kindel13:29T. Novak12:23
Line 4C. Dewar10:58F. Hallander9:03B. Lizotte8:45
Pair 1E. Karlsson19:23P. Wotherspoon19:19
Pair 2K. Letang16:56R. Shea16:31
Pair 3C. Clifton13:38M. Dumba14:16

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish17:44C. Gauthier16:15B. Sennecke16:41
Line 2M. Granlund13:40F. Vatrano14:12T. Terry13:53
Line 3R. Johnston11:09N. Nesterenko10:37R. Poehling10:04
Line 4C. Kreider8:00L. Carlsson8:41A. Killorn8:36
Pair 1R. Gudas17:27J. LaCombe18:02
Pair 2P. Mintyukov15:11D. Helleson15:52
Pair 3J. Trouba16:42O. Zellweger16:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.2, ANA 3.1PIT 3, ANA 4
Total goals6.47
Shots on goalPIT 30.0, ANA 29.6PIT 25, ANA 22
Win chancePIT 51%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.120.73126%1
PIT B. Rust2.810.86131%0
ANA M. McTavish2.800.84028%0
PIT S. Crosby2.831.09233%0
PIT R. Rakell2.520.75128%1
ANA T. Terry2.430.81128%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.410.67015%0
ANA F. Vatrano2.400.55024%0
PIT K. Letang2.200.48011%0
ANA C. Kreider2.140.66333%2
ANA L. Carlsson2.010.75225%0
PIT E. Malkin2.030.77124%0
ANA O. Zellweger2.020.3609%0
ANA A. Killorn2.010.60025%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.910.65014%0
ANA M. Granlund1.720.73118%0
PIT P. Tomasino1.620.39014%0
PIT T. Novak1.520.47018%0
PIT A. Mantha1.510.54120%1
ANA J. Trouba1.500.2706%0
PIT C. Dewar1.410.30012%0
ANA R. Gudas1.310.2805%0
ANA D. Helleson1.330.2718%1
ANA N. Nesterenko1.300.25013%0
PIT C. Clifton1.220.2905%0
PIT B. Lizotte1.200.38016%0
PIT M. Dumba1.200.1905%0
ANA R. Poehling1.200.42015%0
PIT J. Brazeau1.120.30114%1
PIT P. Wotherspoon1.100.1903%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.010.2915%0
PIT F. Hallander0.910.26011%0
PIT R. Shea0.820.1526%0
ANA R. Johnston0.400.1104%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.