Game Recap: PIT 2, ANA 5, November 8, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalSun, Nov 8, 2026Every game that night

ANA5

ANA beat PIT 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.82 expected goals to 4.65. PIT outshot ANA 33 to 25. C. Gauthier scored three for ANA. E. Karlsson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Brossoit stopped 31 of 33.

Team Stats

PITANA

33Shots on goal25

4.65Expected goals2.82

72Shot attempts55

205v5 shots on goal14

2/6Power play3/4

21Hits26

14Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes12

14Giveaways15

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.65 xGANA 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT32 on goal, 2 scored

ANA24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	0	2	2	5	2	0	-2	0	21:53	5:28
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	2	23:08	6:06
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	3	3	1	-2	0	22:06	5:40
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:12	6:08
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:27	1:50
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:10	0:03
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:53	1:56
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	12:35	0:03
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:02	0:03
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:21	1:56
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:53	2:38
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:58	1:16
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	8	0	0	-2	0	25:33	6:09
K. Letang	D	1	0	1	2	4	0	-1	0	21:56	4:01
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:12	0:05
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	16:46	0:03
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:32	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	24	20	4	.833	53:45	Loss
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	3	4	3	0	2	+2	0	21:51	6:19
C. Gauthier	LW	3	1	4	6	0	0	+2	0	18:24	6:43
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	18:29	6:05
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	4	16:43	0:34
R. McQueen	C	0	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	13:22	1:06
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	21:33	6:38
J. Caulfield	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	13:57	0:52
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	13:54	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:07	0:27
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	9:36	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:27	0:00
N. Myatovic	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	3	3	1	2	5	+2	0	30:54	6:49
T. Luneau	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	16:10	0:22
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+2	0	24:20	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:11	0:00
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:11	0:00
N. Warren	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Brossoit	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin13:08S. Crosby13:08R. Rakell11:24

Line 2T. Novak10:21E. Chinakhov10:59B. Kindel9:01

Line 3C. Dewar10:10B. Lizotte9:06N. Robertson8:39

Line 4J. Brazeau8:48A. Kuzmenko7:33H. Lapierre8:16

Pair 1S. Girard15:09K. Korczak13:39

Pair 2S. Stastney15:21E. Karlsson11:40

Pair 3K. Letang13:31D. Carlile11:02

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier10:30B. Sennecke11:13M. Granlund10:21

Line 2J. Caulfield11:10L. Carlsson11:31A. Killorn12:26

Line 3F. Vatrano8:41N. Myatovic8:37T. Washe8:24

Line 4R. McQueen10:21J. Malott8:09N. Nesterenko8:23

Pair 1D. Helleson16:27J. LaCombe16:26

Pair 2T. Luneau15:09T. Mitchell12:14

Pair 3P. Mintyukov11:38N. Warren9:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 18 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
ANA C. Gauthier	3.5	-155	+120	6	Over
ANA B. Sennecke	2.5	-120	+100	2	Under
ANA L. Carlsson	2.5	+113	-130	3	Over
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	-110	-108	3	Over
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	+120	-155	2	Under
ANA A. Killorn	1.5	-125	+100	2	Over
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	-180	+139	1	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	-165	+144	1	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	1.5	-170	+136	8	Over
PIT E. Malkin	1.5	-155	+130	5	Over
ANA J. Caulfield	1.5	+115	-145	0	Under
ANA J. LaCombe	1.5	+108	-120	1	Under
PIT K. Letang	1.5	+100	-145	2	Over
ANA M. Granlund	1.5	-165	+135	3	Over
PIT N. Robertson	1.5	-108	-120	0	Under
ANA R. McQueen	1.5	+122	-155	1	Under
ANA T. Luneau	1.5	+105	-135	2	Over
PIT T. Novak	1.5	-135	+115	3	Over

5 of 34 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
ANA A. Killorn	0.5	+380	-450	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+260	-400	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
ANA B. Sennecke	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
ANA C. Gauthier	0.5	+120	-135	3	Over
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
ANA D. Helleson	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
PIT J. Brazeau	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
ANA J. Caulfield	0.5	+390	-475	0	Under
ANA J. LaCombe	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
ANA J. Malott	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+2200	–	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+800	-2500	1	Over
ANA L. Carlsson	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
ANA M. Granlund	0.5	+250	-390	1	Over
ANA N. Myatovic	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
ANA N. Nesterenko	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
ANA N. Warren	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
ANA R. McQueen	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+180	-220	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+191	-260	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
PIT S. Stastney	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
ANA T. Luneau	0.5	+750	-1200	1	Over
ANA T. Mitchell	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
ANA T. Washe	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
ANA A. Killorn	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+175	-210	0	Under
ANA B. Sennecke	0.5	+106	-137	1	Over
ANA C. Gauthier	0.5	+140	-165	1	Over
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+162	-195	2	Over
ANA J. Caulfield	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
ANA J. LaCombe	0.5	-125	+105	3	Over
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
ANA L. Carlsson	0.5	-115	-105	0	Under
ANA M. Granlund	0.5	-102	-115	3	Over
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+156	-200	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+110	-135	1	Over
ANA T. Luneau	0.5	+190	-255	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under

11 of 16 overs hit (69%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
ANA L. Carlsson	1.5	+180	-235	0	Under
ANA A. Killorn	0.5	+140	-155	1	Over
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
ANA B. Sennecke	0.5	-200	+165	1	Over
ANA C. Gauthier	0.5	-210	+175	4	Over
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+135	-145	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-170	+135	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	-125	+105	2	Over
ANA J. Caulfield	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
ANA J. LaCombe	0.5	-160	+145	3	Over
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+165	-205	1	Over
ANA M. Granlund	0.5	-175	+145	4	Over
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-150	+130	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-175	+160	1	Over
ANA T. Luneau	0.5	+136	-170	1	Over
PIT T. Novak	0.5	-130	+115	0	Under

11 of 18 overs hit (61%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
ANA A. Killorn	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+325	-500	0	Under
ANA B. Sennecke	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
ANA C. Gauthier	0.5	+165	-220	2	Over
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+400	-650	2	Over
ANA J. Caulfield	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
ANA J. LaCombe	0.5	+200	-275	2	Over
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
ANA L. Carlsson	0.5	+170	-225	0	Under
ANA M. Granlund	0.5	+220	-250	2	Over
ANA N. Nesterenko	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
ANA R. McQueen	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+280	-350	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
ANA T. Luneau	0.5	+450	-1200	1	Over
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PIT A. Silovs	24.5	-106	-115	20	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneBeckett Sennecke ANA Plays his 100th game1 A, 2 SOG
HometownNick Robertson PIT Plays near home (born in Pasadena)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.1, ANA 3.6	PIT 2, ANA 5
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	PIT 25.1, ANA 28.9	PIT 33, ANA 25
Win chance	ANA 57%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.9	6	1.09	4	41%	3
ANA B. Sennecke	2.8	2	1.01	1	35%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.6	3	1.09	0	33%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	3	0.85	1	32%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.2	2	1.07	1	33%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	5	0.82	2	25%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.0	1	0.58	0	24%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.0	3	0.95	4	27%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	1.8	8	0.73	1	14%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	3	0.71	0	25%	0
PIT N. Robertson	1.7	0	0.42	0	20%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.7	1	0.49	0	20%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	2	0.51	1	22%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	1	0.88	3	15%	0
ANA J. Caulfield	1.4	0	0.62	0	26%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	2	0.41	1	8%	1
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
ANA R. McQueen	1.3	1	0.24	1	13%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.2	1	0.36	0	16%	0
ANA J. Malott	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
ANA T. Luneau	1.1	2	0.41	1	8%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	1	0.34	0	9%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.1	0	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.0	1	0.22	0	7%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.0	0	0.28	0	13%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	1	0.31	0	7%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	0	0.35	0	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	3	0.35	0	13%	0
PIT H. Lapierre	0.9	0	0.38	0	11%	0
PIT S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.35	0	4%	0
ANA N. Warren	0.7	1	0.24	0	2%	0
ANA T. Mitchell	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.