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Game Recap
PIT4
CBJ3
PIT beat CBJ 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.91 expected goals to 3.30. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Jarry stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CBJ | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 6:10PITS. Crosby0.13 xG
- 1st 13:40CBJS. Monahan0.38 xG
- 2nd 3:51CBJB. GaunceSH0.10 xG
- 2nd 19:56CBJZ. Werenski0.02 xG
- 3rd 0:13PITB. Rust0.05 xG
- 3rd 8:28PITS. Crosby0.29 xG
- OT 0:59PITK. Letang0.21 xG
Team Stats
PITCBJ
24Shots on goal29
2.91Expected goals3.30
55Shot attempts63
215v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play0/2
18Hits16
20Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways19
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.91 xGCBJ 3.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 1:55 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:54 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:07 | 1:13 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:46 | 1:55 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:06 | 1:52 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:58 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:11 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:09 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 12:17 | 1:55 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:07 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 2:38 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 | 2:30 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:13 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:13 | 1:27 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:03 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:01 | 2:35 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:59 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 3:16 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 1:00 |
| L. Pinelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:12 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 2:59 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:57 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:23 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:06 | 3:37 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 2:52 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:29 | 1:09 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:24 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 60:56 | OT loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
Line 3J. Koppanen10:55B. Lizotte10:30C. Dewar9:42
Line 4V. Koivunen9:02B. Kindel9:06D. Heinen10:11
Pair 1E. Karlsson17:14P. Wotherspoon20:07
CBJ
Line 1M. Wood15:15I. Lundestrom14:26C. Coyle14:48
Line 2C. Sillinger14:16L. Pinelli15:38S. Monahan13:29
Line 3A. Fantilli14:35D. Voronkov11:43K. Johnson11:37
Line 4B. Gaunce9:06E. Chinakhov9:16Z. Aston-Reese7:23
Pair 1Z. Werenski20:51I. Provorov20:02
Pair 2D. Severson16:14D. Mateychuk14:44
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.1, CBJ 3.2 | PIT 4, CBJ 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 28.7, CBJ 30.4 | PIT 24, CBJ 29 |
| Win chance | CBJ 52% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.6 | 2 | 0.91 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.9 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 3 | 1.00 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 2.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 2.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.9 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Gaunce | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT M. Dumba | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Smith | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.