Game Recap: PIT 5, CBJ 4 (OT), January 4, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT5

Final/OTSun, Jan 4, 2026Every game that night

CBJ4

PIT beat CBJ 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.14 expected goals to 2.98. PIT outshot CBJ 43 to 25. K. Marchenko led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Silovs stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PIT	1	1	2	1	5
CBJ	3	1	0	0	4

1st 1:50PITV. Koivunen0.15 xG
1st 8:21CBJD. Voronkov0.05 xG
1st 8:48CBJM. Marchment0.04 xG
1st 18:38CBJK. Marchenko0.11 xG
2nd 0:47CBJZ. Werenski0.03 xG
2nd 16:51PITN. Acciari0.19 xG
3rd 3:28PITT. NovakPP0.12 xG
3rd 19:46PITR. Rakell0.22 xG
OT 2:22PITS. Crosby0.22 xG

Team Stats

PITCBJ

43Shots on goal25

4.14Expected goals2.98

92Shot attempts53

345v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/0

14Hits22

14Blocked shots19

0Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways19

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.14 xGCBJ 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT43 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	24:34	3:39
B. Kindel	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	14:01	1:43
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	5	4	2	0	24:14	3:59
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	15:23	4:04
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	13:29	1:25
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	13:18	0:00
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:43	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	12:38	1:06
V. Koivunen	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:28	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	22:46	4:16
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	13:54	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	13:07	1:16
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+2	25:46	4:04
J. St. Ivany	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:06	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	23:17	1:18
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:43	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	18:06	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	25	21	4	.840	60:41	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	16:45	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	20:49	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	2	5	0	+1	0	19:14	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	17:37	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:00	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	2	10:07	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:08	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	14:13	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	12:35	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:42	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:48	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:10	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	25:54	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	+3	0	25:01	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	28:44	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:14	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	14:37	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	7:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	43	38	5	.884	62:22	OT loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby18:26R. Rakell17:29B. Rust16:18

Line 2B. Lizotte13:54N. Acciari12:43C. Dewar13:18

Line 3T. Novak11:23J. Brazeau11:51A. Mantha9:38

Line 4V. Koivunen11:28B. Kindel11:23E. Chinakhov10:48

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon18:43E. Karlsson18:35

Pair 2K. Letang19:22B. Kulak18:06

Pair 3R. Shea16:14J. Ivany15:06

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:51A. Fantilli16:32M. Marchment16:00

Line 2C. Coyle16:00B. Jenner17:43M. Olivier16:19

Line 3D. Heinen10:42C. Sillinger10:35D. Voronkov9:43

Line 4B. Gaunce10:28K. Johnson9:48Z. Aston-Reese8:57

Pair 1D. Severson20:42I. Provorov22:56

Pair 2Z. Werenski21:15D. Mateychuk20:55

Pair 3D. Fabbro13:13J. Christiansen7:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEgor Chinakhov PIT Faces CBJ, his team until Dec 20251 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.2, CBJ 3.2	PIT 5, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	PIT 29.2, CBJ 29.1	PIT 43, CBJ 25
Win chance	CBJ 51%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	2	0.99	2	21%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.9	3	0.80	1	32%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	4	0.84	2	32%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.7	4	0.83	0	31%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	5	0.74	1	28%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	3	1.03	2	34%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.4	0	0.60	1	26%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	4	0.69	1	15%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.1	3	0.68	1	26%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.9	3	0.46	0	11%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	2	0.34	2	16%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	2	0.56	1	24%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	2	0.59	1	23%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	1	0.44	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	0	0.40	0	13%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	3	0.49	1	19%	1
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.31	1	13%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	2	0.32	1	14%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.56	0	20%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	3	0.44	0	20%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.4	2	0.53	2	15%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	2	0.37	1	16%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.3	3	0.28	0	13%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.3	2	0.23	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	0	0.40	0	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.35	0	15%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.1	1	0.38	0	14%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	3	0.22	1	11%	1
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	1	0.23	1	8%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	1	0.25	0	6%	0
PIT J. Ivany	1.0	2	0.14	1	3%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	1	0.31	0	13%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.25	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.