Game Recap: PIT 1, NJD 2 (SO), November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT1

Final/SOSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

NJD2

NJD beat PIT 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.43 expected goals to 2.56. PIT outshot NJD 34 to 24. T. Meier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Allen stopped 33 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	0	1	0	0	1
NJD	1	0	0	1	2

1st 19:12NJDA. Gritsyuk0.26 xG
2nd 12:33PITR. Graves0.02 xG

Team Stats

PITNJD

34Shots on goal24

2.56Expected goals2.43

65Shot attempts49

255v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play0/2

19Hits22

14Blocked shots22

9Penalty minutes7

12Giveaways11

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.56 xGNJD 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT30 on goal, 1 scored

NJD23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:13	2:00
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:55	2:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	19:53	2:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:53	2:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:34	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:34	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:01	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	5	14:12	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:07	0:00
J. Koppanen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:36	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:10	0:00
R. Graves	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	17:09	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	24:58	2:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:05	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	21:55	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	20:25	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	2	6	1	+1	0	17:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	24	23	1	.958	65:00	OT loss
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Gritsyuk	RW	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:06	0:36
J. Hughes	C	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	22:52	3:28
T. Meier	RW	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	20:36	3:24
D. Mercer	C	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:18	1:57
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:01	1:41
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:25	3:03
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	7	0	+1	0	13:43	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	1	4	4	-1	0	13:40	0:28
C. Glass	C	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	13:19	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	12:04	1:06
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	11:39	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:47	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	29:39	3:11
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	26:37	0:49
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	4	5	0	5	21:38	0:06
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	20:26	0:11
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:15	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	34	33	1	.971	65:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust15:26S. Crosby16:38B. Kindel16:08

Line 2A. Mantha14:12T. Novak13:18E. Malkin15:47

Line 3C. Dewar11:45B. Lizotte12:43D. Heinen11:57

Line 4K. Hayes11:10V. Koivunen12:14J. Koppanen10:04

Pair 1E. Karlsson19:49P. Wotherspoon20:23

Pair 2K. Letang17:32R. Shea18:05

Pair 3R. Graves16:46C. Clifton16:03

NJD

Line 1T. Meier15:59D. Mercer16:50N. Hischier14:58

Line 2O. Palat13:12A. Gritsyuk14:33C. Glass13:19

Line 3J. Bratt11:45J. Hughes16:19S. Noesen10:58

Line 4J. Lammikko11:39P. Cotter13:05L. Glendening9:14

Pair 1B. Dillon20:06L. Hughes22:41

Pair 2S. Nemec23:18J. Siegenthaler19:39

Pair 3C. White9:55D. Cholowski12:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCody Glass NJD Faces PIT, his team until Mar 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, NJD 3.3	PIT 1, NJD 2
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	PIT 27.1, NJD 29.4	PIT 34, NJD 24
Win chance	NJD 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	5	1.26	0	40%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.9	6	0.70	0	30%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	3	0.81	1	30%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	3	1.03	1	34%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	0	0.98	0	33%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	0	1.04	0	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	3	0.78	0	14%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.2	1	0.41	1	15%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	2	0.78	0	25%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	3	0.46	0	21%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	2	0.63	0	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	2	0.62	0	27%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	3	0.41	0	8%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	2	0.43	0	19%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.5	3	0.36	0	14%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	0	0.49	0	21%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	2	0.27	0	12%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	1	0.39	0	17%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.3	0	0.28	0	12%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	1	0.39	0	16%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.2	0	0.31	0	5%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	2	0.32	0	9%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.35	0	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.27	0	15%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	2	0.30	0	14%	0
PIT C. Clifton	1.0	2	0.24	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	0.9	0	0.16	0	10%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.8	1	0.17	0	2%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	3	0.23	0	6%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.7	3	0.15	1	4%	1
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.